July 13th - Original Article on X

Does $DECK Clear Our Investment Checklist?

Right now, our portfolio is 3 names; Meta, LNG, Dave. I’m looking to diversify into something uncorrelated as a 4th name.

#1 Does it thoroughly diversify us away from our current 3 watchlist names (PGR, DECK, QCOM)?

• PGR is insurance, Deck is shoe apparel (Hoka, Ugg). Neither should be very correlated to AI. However, PGR is tied to rates, and I believe investors would also correlate this to DAVE. So if rates go up or stay sideways, they both benefit, if they go down they probably get sold off to some extent.

• Qcom is a strong company, but tied to Meta esp. considering Meta is one of their newly taunted hyperscaler customers. We’re already at-weight or over-weight Meta

• You can argue PGR and Dave are slightly correlated since they’re both involved in lending to drive income, so rates matter. (oh I realized I already wrote this, anyways, worth noting)

• Deck likely seems the least correlated to AI. (Unless Robots take over the planet and nobody needs shoes any more)

#2 Does it fit our Checklist criteria?

Out of favor: Qcom probably the most in favor, followed by PGR, followed by Deck as the least favored.

Moat: I’d say Deck probably has the least defensible moat given the nature of their industry. It’s a constant churn to remain on top, or get back to it. Cyclical in that sense; the cyclicality comes from consumer taste.

On a podcast I was listening to today, he said of the Shoe companies he’s aware of he’d “rather own Nike or VF Corp (Northface, Timberland, Vans).”

But comparing DECK to VF Corp... I’m missing it. First off, UGG & HOKA vs NORTH FACE & TIMBALAND & VANS is pretty fair fight. Both Ugg and Hoka have grown YoY for a decade, and most recently HOKA grew 16%. On the other hand, Vans declined revenue ~10% last year... and Northface grew, but 4% less than Hoka. Timabland only grew a standard 6-8%. So what am I missing?

Well, VF Corps’ Alta brand grew 50% revenue. Deck doesn’t have any assets growing at this pace. The market gets excited by that...

Claude says:

“Altra and Hoka are head-to-head competitors in premium running footwear — funny enough, both were founded around the same era of the running-shoe innovation boom, just with opposite philosophies: Hoka is maximal cushion, Altra is zero-drop with a foot-shaped toe box. The scale gap is huge though — Hoka did $2.59 billion in fiscal 2026, up 16%, while Altra is likely in the $300–400M range. But Altra growing ~50% while Hoka decelerates to projected low double digits is exactly the kind of David-taking-share-from-Goliath dynamic VFC bulls point to.

FY26 scoreboard is: TNF growing, Timberland growing, Altra up ~50%, Vans shrinking. Versus Deckers: Hoka +16%, UGG +8%. On pure brand momentum, yes, Deckers still wins — Hoka out-grew everything at VF except tiny Altra, and Deckers has no bleeder like Vans”

Hoka grew “only” 16%, but on a $2.2B base — that’s ~$360M of new revenue in one year, roughly Altra’s entire size

So, for DECK, what am I missing?

After digesting all that... here’s the core of what I’m missing:

Put differently: DECK is a bet that a great business stays great. VFC is a bet that a mediocre business becomes decent. and you’re paying a mediocre-business price for it, with Vans stabilization as a free option on top.

This is a really critically important mindset to understand about markets.

Smart investors, more experienced than I, take the side of VFC. My gut says DECK, because “VFC only becomes cheap on hypothetical FY28 numbers: if they hit the 10% margin exit rate, that’s ~$1B of EBIT, and today’s EV works out to ~9x — i.e., you’d be paying for VFC’s future what the market lets you pay for Deckers’ present.”

DECK has no debt, and consistently performed for a decade on growth. VF Corp is a nightmare on revenue consistency to figure out (VF also sold SUPREME.. which I’d argue is their coolest brand), has debt, and is trading at almost a 50% (!!!) higher TTM P/E multiple.

Ok.. so all that’s to say, I personally would rather own a clean story for DECK at an out-of-favor multiple.

DECK vs. NIKE

But... what about vs NIKE?

Right off the bat, the clear difference in my eyes are brand qualities. Everybody knows Nike. Nobody knows WTF Decker is... and only runners know HOKA. So if I look back at this day in 2035, I can see myself saying, “of course Nike is the strongest shoe brand in the world still! It’s fkc*ing NIKE!”

However, I could also see myself saying, “Incredible what that CEO did with Hoka over a decade. $10B’s in sales, $ B’s in profits, and expanded into multiple diversified shoe categories with consumer name labels.”

Both of those are on the table for now.

Looks like Nike trading about 25-30X owners earnings, and 21 P/E. Where as DECK trades at 15x Owners earnings, and if we factor in EV (fortress balance sheet re no debt), then we’re down to 13-14X.

Roughly 6-8% Yield, plus growing 10%+, plus strong margins/ROIC.

Where have I seen this story before.... hmm..... ADOBE!

And that thing fcking tanked despite the solid fundamentals.

With Adobe, we were asking:

“Will technology permanently change this business?”

With DECK, we’re asking:

“Is this just another fashion cycle?”

If DECK/HOKA becomes a durable global athletic brand - more like Lululemon or Nike than a temporary running trend - the current valuation could prove too low. If HOKA eventually plateaus and UGG keeps maturing slowly, then today’s multiple is probably fair (still think it’s kind of on low end, just bc the growth doesn’t mean the brand is done... they’ve been around since 1980s!!! (I also said this about ADOBE....) Getting some red flags here just based on my mistakes with ADOBE. It’s not that it was a bad biz.. it’s just that the opportunity comes from extreme patience to wait for ridiculous like 7-9x multiple. When the bad news is already fully baked in.

BTW.. good sleuthing online for their tech trends in DECK... looks like they’re thinking about ML and analytics.. but probably behind.

CEO Comps: NIKE v DECK v VFC

Stefano has done great in 2 years. +1

And Bracken is built to turn around.. +1

For VF Corp, this is why Bracken’s hiring mattered

The board wasn’t looking for someone to invent a new apparel category.

They wanted someone who had already proven he could:

• simplify a bloated portfolio,

• improve execution,

• rebuild brand desirability,

• and restore profitability.

That’s almost exactly what he did at Logitech.

By the time he left Logitech as turnaround CEO: Revenue had more than doubled.... Market cap increased roughly 10x!!!

Ok.... but I just looked at VANS website.... my lord help save them. Oye. I cannot figure out what they’re going for. I took screenshots from their website and made this... they’re all over the place.

😂😂 Vans just gave us punk → skater → finance bro → dad all in one shopping page.

Maybe Vans works out.... I don’t think this is a bet I’d believe in enough. However, I’ve been buying UGGs for 20 years... new slippers every year or two... and HOKA for 5-8(?) years... whenever I need a new workout shoe.

So.. for me personally, there’s just now way I could justify buying Nike or VF Corp over DECK. Not when numbers, execution, and personnel beliefs are on one side. I think DECK is a great buy, and if it tanked 25% I’d be all over it. But... it’s still floating.. so let’s now comp it back to QCOM and PGR.

And also, I’ve got to admit that LULU or URBN also have cases to be made for them. And I don’t think I’d want all three.. so I’d need to also deep dive between DECK LULU and URBN. One strategy would be index them now, sell the ones that go up and buy more of the one that goes down. But hm.. I’m trying to run a concentrated simplified portfolio of 6-8 names.

So I think I might be better off examining PGR since I know it the best based on studying the insurance market a lot over 6 months.

But, let’s keep doing the checklist comps for now....

Low + No Debt: Net Debt +5B Qcom, +8B PGR, -1.5B Deck (0% debt-to-equity ratio, that’s a strong quality to have for physical goods company).

Profitable: Qcom 22% NI margin, Deck 18%, PGR 12%

Pricing Power: Price x Volume:

PGR is charging slightly less for new policies but doing more volume, volume is growing 8% YoY. April showed Total policies in force reached 39,767 thousand at April 30, 2026, up 8% year over year, led by growth in direct auto and special lines, and May showed total number of policies in force increased by 8% to 39,970, driven by growth in personal and commercial lines. Policy count growing faster than premiums is a good sign — it means growth is coming from more customers, not just rate hikes, but it also could imply that margins take a slight hit to optimize for overall volume.

DECK showing incredible strength with HOKA. Ugg cash cow. Btw, HOKA largest indie Rival, Brooks Shoes, is a company owned by Buffett. (btw, Nike has more debt, higher multiple, and less consistent operating cashflows).

Qcom’s core biz is in decline b/c Apple is moving in-house, but their Auto is growing crazy fast, 35%, and their handset division should be 1/3 of revenue in the next couple years, that’s a great improvement as they shift into CPU heavy datacenter, edge compute, etc...

Founder Led:

None of these are founder led sadly. VERY Impressive CEO track record from PGR. Tricia Griffith

• Tenure: CEO since July 1, 2016 (~10 years). Joined Progressive in 1988 as an entry-level claims representative — a genuine 28-year rise through the ranks (Chief HR Officer, Claims Group President, Personal Lines COO) before becoming CEO.

• Revenue track record: This is the standout. Progressive’s revenue has grown from roughly $23 billion in net premiums written when she took over to $87.6 billion in total revenue in FY2025 — close to a 4x increase over her tenure. She was named Fortune’s Businessperson of the Year in 2018, just two years into the job, for this performance.

• Stock/scale: Progressive is now the #2 U.S. auto insurer (~16.7% market share) with an

  $125B+

  market cap, up from a much smaller, third-place player when she started.

Other mentions... DECK CEO prev. ran Nike EMEA and Puma as well. He started with Nike in 1993... so shoes are all he knows, and these $5B revenue Shoe businesses are all he’s done his whole career.

Cristiano Amon. Tenure: CEO since June 30, 2021 (~5 years). Joined Qualcomm in 1995 as an engineer, became President in 2018 before ascending to CEO

Theme Decade-Long:

DECK definitely has the ‘athleisure’ trend, and hopefully a get-fit trend. They have 240K participants on their Strava Challenge. Runners love one another.

Zone of Competence:

If you understand whether HOKA’s growth holds up and whether UGG keeps its pricing power, you understand the stock. BUT.. nobody can understand that, and, from the minimal insight I can gleam into HOKA... it appears it’s losing a bit of its grip. But.. I have no clue.. I just cold messaged a run-club on Instagram that kinda know.

You can’t predict the brand success.. but you do know ppl will need to keep buying shoes, and they have some of the strongest operating margins in shoe apparel, plus 0 debt, 1.5b cash, a CEO proving themselves 2 years in a row, and a margin of Saftey on PE.

I think it comes down to LULU v URBN v DECK.

Due Diligence

So... I even messaged Run Clubs on instagram asking about trends, and Hoka momentum. This is the common answer I see online, and in small research sample, ‘had it’s time.’

And the whole thesis on DECK is that it keeps growing 16% YoY rev with Hoka brand. Though, even if it drops to 10% you’d still get your money back in 10-14 years. But... I don’t think I want to own Hoka and Ugg for 10 years. Although, if I think about it, there’s a high probability I’ll still own Ugg in 10 years. I just buy new pairs of the same slippers when they get worn. But Hoka... I actually think the cushion causes more headaches than it solves because they’re not as stable for balancing exercises, and they don’t strap in to bikes/rowers very well (they’re so bulky).

So unfortunately, I think this DECK is a pass for me. And it’s already up 7% since I started writing this article a few days ago. But oh well, I just don’t buy the decade-long trend here.

Checklist

“”No wise pilot, no matter how great his talent and experience, fails to use a checklist.”“ MUNGER

Here’s some notes to myself that I re-read before investing:

You gotta pick. And you gotta pick right.

The point of investing is to always be able to take advantage when prices are attractive

If you wake up and think the market is bringing you opportunities rather than you are giving advice from the market, you’ll be successful

The market is the most abiding thing in the world if you just let it be. Unless it’s a great deal in a great price do not buy it.

The price almost ALWAYS finds its way lower somehow to your buy price. You keep thinking it won’t happen, or you’ll miss it, and you trick yourself into thinking the solution is “just buy it now.” That is a shitty fucking reason to buy something.

Just get to know a COMPANY (not just a moment of opportunity) really really well. Then apply common sense to it.

———

Value is the # if you’re all-knowing about the future and could predict all the cash, discounted at proper discount rate, that is value of a business — in other words the only reason to lay out money now is to get more later on. The cashflows are printed on a bond. Not on a stock certificate.

Warren Buffett’s method: find 1-2 factors that make or break the business, study historical numbers obsessively, and set a simple target — “I want 15% on this investment, day one.” No DCF models required.

~DON

Www.LinkedIn.com/in/donstein

substack.meetdonstein.com

Views

Pretty much every stock I write about goes straight down right afterwards. So do not take this as investment advice, take it as myself trying to learn how to analyze companies.

Meta Platforms, Inc.

👉 This article was originally written July 8th at 3 PM on X.

I feel I have an edge on Meta considering I worked there during the peak of the Metaverse debacle. I should be able to analyze their Datacenter spend better than average, so, here we go…

52-wk Range: $520 – $796

Article Highlights:

1: “DeepSeek can copy model architecture. But... Nobody can copy 20 years of privately collected social-behavior and advertiser-performance datapoints.”

2: “In 2025, ad impressions rose ~12% while price-per-ad rose ~9%. Volume and price up together... the classic pricing-power signal.”

3: “Pershing Square built a ~$2B position (roughly 9-10% of the fund, their biggest tech bet) starting around Nov 2025 at an avg cost near $625/share. In their Feb 2026 investor presentation, they explicitly called it a “deeply discounted valuation for one of the world’s greatest businesses” due to AI upside not being fully appreciated. Druckenmiller, Norges Bank, and JPMorgan all added too I believe. Norges Bank (Norway’s sovereign wealth fund) are a long-term holder with a sizable stake (~1.17-1.2% of Meta).”

Every 90 days on Earnings, we all remember, “Oh! Meta is like the best most profitable business of all time.” And then the other 89 days we seem to watch those profits get thrown into a burning fire pit of money. The Oculus pit. The Over-hire pit. The Metaverse pit. The Datacenter pit is the next investor dilemma.

But IMHO, Datacenters are true monetize’able assets. A VR brick attached to your face is a research project. So given the proven datacenter market, and clear 30%+ Growth for Google/MSFT/AWS Clouds.... I think there’s a much higher floor for Meta’s datacenter spend than most give credit for.

We own this one, and our thesis is simple: this is a wonderful business that periodically goes out of style and then comes roaring back, run by a connected, technical founder who keeps making the right long-term bets (as ugly as it may look, sometimes).

Owners Earnings, Warren Buffett Method Cashflow Stats:

• $124B operating cash flow

• -$20b in D&A, -$25b in SBC... get us an Owners Earnings Cashflow of ~$80B

• At $1.5T market cap that’s 19x multiple

• Vs. Historical norms: Pretty much anything under 20x feels more than fair.

• Being fair — the risk arises from the next 3 years of FCF going to 0. But, given how depreciation accounting works vs cash capex, the Owners Earnings would still remain fairly strong. The argument agains the Free Cash Flow method is… DUH, everyone can see that. And stocks don’t move on obvious. So my initial buy thesis at $605 was based on giving more faith to the FWD Owners Earnings than the rest of the market.

Key Highlights

• The out-of-style / back-in-style pattern is the whole thesis. Meta grew from ~$27.6B revenue (2016) to ~$201B (2025) — a near-8x run with only one down year (2022, -1%). Each time the market declares it dead (privacy in 2021–22, metaverse waste, now AI capex), the core ad machine keeps compounding and the stock re-rates back up. This company has a LOT of leeway..... We’re currently in one of those “out of style” windows.

• A connected, technical founder still at the controls. Mark Zuckerberg founded the company, controls the vote, and has a 20-year record of big bets that looked reckless and then paid off (mobile, Stories, Reels, open-source Llama). Because of Zucks’ age, there’s a chance he could be at the helm for another 30 years as CEO. That would be something special, and vastly supporting the thesis for compounding IMHO. He’s also gotten politically connected this year, bringing on Dina Powell McCormick (ex-Goldman partner, ex-Bush/Trump White House) as President & Vice Chairman.

• Most likely the strongest personal data moat in tech. 3.58 billion daily active people, DMing, liking, etc... ~70% of all active internet users touch a Meta app monthly. The network effect, 20+ years of behavioral data, and advertiser lock-in (years of pixel/audience data, Advantage+ campaigns that improve the longer they run) are essentially impossible to replicate. DeepSeek can copy a OpenAI model architecture. Nobody can copy 20 years of private social-behavioral and advertiser performance data.

• Elite economics, real cash. 82% gross margin, ~41% operating margin, ~30% net margin, and operating cash flow that compounded from ~$50B (2022) to ~$116B (2025) — a ~32% three-year CAGR. For every $1 of net income, Meta generates ~$1.92 of operating cash flow. The earnings are backed by cash, not accounting.

• AI is quietly already paying off in the core. Advantage+ automates targeting, bidding, and creative and already handles

  $60B+

  in annual ad spend. In 2025, ad impressions rose ~12% while price-per-ad rose ~9% — volume and price up together, the classic pricing-power signal. The open-source Llama ecosystem (1.2B downloads) is crowdsourced R&D that flows straight back into the ad-targeting stack.

• Diversifying Revenue Streams. On June 3, 2026 Meta launched Meta Business Agent — the first time it has charged for an AI product — across WhatsApp, Messenger, and Instagram, billed on token consumption / Meta One tiers. This is the “second revenue vector” the bull case needed, attached to a platform of billions of users from a standing start.

Moving away from pure ads, it would be nice to see them mix services from companies via WhatsApp, or Cloud revenue. Personally, I vote they go heavy into Cloud.

Bought at a similar ~20x by quality buyers.

Pershing Square built a ~$2B position (roughly 9-10% of the fund, their biggest tech bet) starting around Nov 2025 at an avg cost near $625/share. In their Feb 2026 investor presentation, they explicitly called it a “deeply discounted valuation for one of the world’s greatest businesses” due to AI upside not being fully appreciated.

Druckenmiller, Norges Bank, and JPMorgan all added too I believe. Norges Bank (Norway’s sovereign wealth fund) are a long-term holder with a sizable stake (~1.17-1.2% of Meta).

Turning Negative to Positive?

Google was being attempted to be broken up when OpenAI launched GPT. And what was the largest threat and worst-case to Google’s business... ended up saving them in court, and gave them new life as a growth stock.

Meta, I foresee, will turn their extreme negative to an extreme positive. They’ll do so by growing a new revenue stream as a Cloud provider. Meta Cloud.

The “Negative”

• The capex is staggering and the FCF dip is real. 2026 capex is guided to $125–$145B (up from $72B in 2025), and a ~$30B+ depreciation wave is about to hit the income statement before those AI investments have generated returns.

The positive twist:

• It took AWS (first mover) 8-10 years to hit $10B

• MSFT took 6-8 years to hit $10B revenue.

• Google took 4-6 years to hit $10B revenue.

• Can Meta do it in..... 2-4 years!?!?!?!?

If the pattern of new entrants eclipsing $10B of revenue continues, it would suggest they could absolutely hit that within 4 years. Which would be wild, but not surprising as long as they start selling... like, yesterday.

Note, all 3 clouds are still growing 20-40%... there’s plenty of Demand for Meta to step in. If they just execute...

Key Risks

AI capex with no (direct) ROI — the central bear case.

• 2026 capex jumps to $125–$145B, nearly doubling, and Reality Labs still burns ~$4–$6B/quarter. A ~$107B step-up in contractual commitments hit in a single quarter. If Family of Apps growth decelerates while losses and depreciation balloon, the “profitable core funds the future” narrative breaks — and the stock gets punished regardless of headline revenue. This is why the stock is off its highs.

Litigation — escalating, not resolving.

• In March 2026 a California jury found Meta and Google liable in a social-media-harm case (Meta on the hook for 70%). The first federal MDL bellwether trials begin June 15, 2026, and Meta’s own 10-K warns these suits could “significantly impact” results, with potential “material loss.” Thousands of consolidated cases hang on these outcomes.

Regulatory overhang — reduced, but alive.

• The big one eased: in November 2025 a judge ruled Meta is not a monopoly, blocking an Instagram/WhatsApp breakup — but the FTC appealed in January 2026, so it’s now at the D.C. Circuit. In the EU, Meta took a €200M fine and a compliance deal rather than a total behavioral-ad ban. Worst cases are off the table; scrutiny is not. I’d also argue there are other potential risks amongst Global and Local govt’s.

Ad-revenue concentration + macro.

• ~97% of revenue is advertising. The revenue floor is unusually strong (10M+ SMB advertisers with no real alternative at their budget), but a tariff-driven recession squeezes SMB ad budgets first, and the Chinese e-commerce category (Temu/Shein, among the fastest-growing spenders) is a concentration risk if US-China trade tightens.

The AI frontier could slip away.

• Meta AI and Meta’s pivot to a closed model (Muse Spark) is unproven. If Meta’s strategy turns out to be a consumer dud, we’ll fully need to rely on Ad rev + Cloud rev to justify the datacenter spend.

• It now appears wise of them to roll their own model, as giving 20 years of data to Claude seems imprudent by Meta.

Btw, Meta dropped a new IMAGE gen model yesterday.. kinda dope!

Random image gen from new META AI chatbot.

Founder key-man / governance.

• Zuckerberg controls the vote, a strength (long-horizon bets) and a risk (no shareholder check if he spends without ROI again, as in the metaverse era). The whole thesis leans on his judgment continuing to be correct. Thankfully, he has a lot of wiggle room given strength of core ad business.

Risk Mitigations

“AI capex with no ROI.”

• This is where the income statement misleads. Add depreciation back and 2026 EBITDA looks better than the NI line suggests. AI is already lifting ad performance ($60B+ through Advantage+) and now has a direct revenue line (Business Agent).

“Litigation.”

• Even a multi-billion judgment is a dent, not a structural break, against a business throwing off this much cash.

“Regulatory.”

• The single biggest tail — a forced Instagram/WhatsApp breakup — was adjudicated in Meta’s favor in late 2025. The EU resolved to a fine-plus-compliance path, not a ban, and Meta is even launching WhatsApp ads in the EU. The remaining items are slow-moving appeals, not imminent existential events.

“Founder key-man.”

• This is the thesis, not a bug. The entire reason to own Meta here is a connected, technical founder with a 20-year record of unpopular bets that worked. We are deliberately betting on Zuckerberg — the mitigant is buying at a price where, even if he’s merely competent rather than brilliant, the business doesn’t lose money.

Margin of Safety

The margin of safety here is business quality plus a modest valuation discount relative to historical norms, and the market.

You always hear great investors say, ‘buy when quality is trading below market multiples.’ This was what led Seth Klarman to buy Google years ago. And seems like smart advice to heed for myself and Meta personally. NFA.

Management & Governance

Founder-led by Mark Zuckerberg — Chairman, CEO, and controlling shareholder since 2004. This is the heart of the thesis. Zuckerberg is a technical founder with a two-decade record of making big, unpopular bets — the mobile transition, Stories, Reels, and open-source Llama — that the market doubted and that paid off. He ended the open-ended metaverse spend when it wasn’t working, which is itself evidence of discipline beneath the bravado. You are explicitly betting on his judgment continuing to be right; his voting control means there’s no one to stop him if it isn’t.

Increasingly connected at the top. Meta brought on Dina Powell McCormick (ex-Goldman Sachs partner, ex-Bush and Trump White House) as President & Vice Chairman in January 2026 — a deliberate move to strengthen political and regulatory positioning. CFO Susan Li is widely regarded as excellent; COO Javier Olivan and CTO Andrew Bosworth round out the team (Bosworth is a watch-item given the metaverse track record, though the underlying tech is strong).

New Top Spot? Leader of Datacenter Biz

Look how Meta’s own blog introduces Santosh.

“At an organization as vast and complex as Meta, it’s hard to ascribe too much importance to any single executive. But it seems fair to say that there are few individuals as crucial to the company’s daily operations as Santosh Janardhan. Appointed head of infrastructure last year, Janardhan is Meta’s top engineering leader, responsible for developing and operating the hardware, network, software, and data centers that all Meta’s services run on. That means keeping everything humming for the more than 3.7 billion people who use Meta’s family of apps each month, while simultaneously laying the groundwork and vision for a highly advanced AI infrastructure to power the company’s products of today and tomorrow”

Later in the article, it then says...

Santosh: We have 21 owned and operated data center regions — each with multiple data center buildings the size of approximately four football fields put back to back. These structures are full of servers. So we have millions of servers, hundreds of thousands of miles of fiber optics. We also have an edge network — that helps extend our infrastructure in places where we don’t have data centers. And all of this is interconnected.

Of course, one of the challenges of operating at hyperscale is managing the inevitable outages and technical issues. The goal is to ensure that the people using our services never experience them. Day in and day out, billions of people use our products. And they’re not just using them nominally. This is how they connect with their loved ones, how they make their living, where they turn to communicate and coordinate services during emergencies. We’re the only hyperscaler that is not a public cloud.”

This line is fascinating.. “We’re the only hyperscaler that is not a public cloud.” We’ll be watching that closely.....

I think he’s a great candidate. Though, would be nice for them to have someone from AWS early days.

Board of Directors

The board includes Marc Andreessen, Patrick Collison (Stripe), John Elkann (Exor/Ferrari), Drew Houston (Dropbox), and Robert Kimmitt (lead independent director, ex-Deputy Treasury Secretary).

On the share register, Ackman (~9–10% of Pershing Square), Druckenmiller, Norges Bank, JPMorgan, and the passive giants (Vanguard ~8.8%, Fidelity ~6%, BlackRock ~5%) have all been buyers.

Financial Picture

^^REVENUE

^^NET INCOME

Net Income is distorted by one-time tax implications, so we’ve normalized those out:

That means, we need Meta to continue to accelerate YoY growth up from that 13% to maybe 17% over the next 3 quarters if they really are going to blow the top off of NI.

Considering their Revenue grew 33% YoY for Q1.... and they’re guiding roughly the same for Q2....

Q2 2026 revenue guidance: $58–61B

...it seems plausible they grow revenue 20-30% this year, and Net Income 15%+ as well. Given all the CapEx spend, those would both be HIGHLY encouraging to see in a ‘down year.’

((Random thought... Not betting anything on these, but they really did truly do a great job with the marketing for Meta Rayban))

Sell Triggers & Thesis Breaks

We buy wonderful businesses and hold for as long as we can; we sell only when the thesis breaks, and trim only if the multiple gets absurd. Specific breakers to watch:

• Capex without returns. And no Cloud layering.

• The AI strategy proves wrong.

• A structural ad shock.

• Litigation goes systemic.

Framing Quotes, and Whether They Actually Apply

“Reversion to the mean constitutes the most powerful force in financial markets.” — Jeremy Grantham

How it applies: This is the thesis in one line. Meta’s whole history is reversion: 2022 crushed it, then margins and the multiple snapped back; today AI-capex fear has it ~22% off highs and near its average P/E (below it, adjusted). If the business keeps compounding and the fear fades, the multiple reverts up — the “out of style → back in style” pattern we’re explicitly buying.

But it might not be true. Reversion cuts both ways. Maybe the ~28–33x peaks were the anomaly and ~20x is the new normal for a maturing, ad-concentrated, capex-heavy business facing real legal and AI risks. The “mean” it reverts toward might be lower than the one we’re anchoring to — and a permanently higher capex base would justify that.

“The main thing to do is find wonderful businesses, buy them, and sit there.” — Warren Buffett

How it applies: Meta clears the “wonderful business” bar by almost any measure: 82% gross margins, 3.58B daily users, the deepest data moat in tech, and pricing power (impressions and price both rising). Founder-led, fortress cash generation, bought at a fair-to-good price — this is a sit-on-your-hands compounder, not a trade.

But it might not be true. “Sit there” only works if the moat is durable. And if I can actually hold on. If AI assistants replace the social feed as how people consume information, or if the frontier-model bet fails, Meta’s attention-and-data moat could erode faster than its 20-year history implies. We’ve never actually seen the feed disrupted; we’re trusting it won’t be on Zuckerberg’s watch.

Value?

1. $1.55T market cap

2. $125B cash from ops

3. $70-80B of owner earnings

4. 19-21x O.E. Multiple

Roughly 5% OE Yield, growing 30% rev, engagement of products also expanding quickly.. and the wild card that puts this over the top would be a successful Cloud business.

They have $240B Equity, about 28% historical ROIC, and are pumping all cashflows back into CapEx. We should see an expanded ROIC if they do cloud correct given the Big 3 all have operating margins above 30%. And Meta could over deliver considering how well AI is working to ad’s already.

I’m optimistic about Meta’s ROIC if they end up monetizing these datacenter with a mix of Cloud and Meta AI... but we need to watch next earnings closely.

Don

Www.LinkedIn.com/in/donstein

https://x.com/donversationz

MSFT lays off 5K employees

High Yield Credit Spreads Remain Tight

Global Markets Barely Move, but lean Red

Market Narrative Catalyst This Week

Monday, July 6 (Today)

• 10:00 AM ET: ISM Services PMI (June) — The big one. Services is ~70% of the economy.

  • Previous (May): 54.5.

    • Consensus hovering 54.0 to 54.3 range.

      • Soft print = growth worries + higher rate-cut odds

      • Hot print = sticky inflation pushback on cuts.

• Fed Governor Waller speech (afternoon) — fresh commentary layered on top.

This sets up as a day to fuel the ‘rate cut vs no rate cut’ narrative.

Tuesday, July 7

• 8:30 AM ET: U.S. International Trade Balance (May)

• Weekly jobless claims.

• Wholesale inventories data.

Wednesday, July 8

• FOMC Minutes (June 16-17 meeting)

  • Highest impact item of the week

  • This is the first minutes under Warsh.

  • Markets will parse every word on inflation path, labor market, and rate-cut timing ahead of the July 28-29 FOMC.

  • Any shift in dot plot thinking or balance-of-risk language moves yields and risk assets fast.

This sets up as a second day to fuel the ‘rate cut vs no rate cut’ narrative.

Earnings Catalyst This Week

• Thursday

  • PEP (PepsiCo) — BMO

  • PGR (Progressive) — BMO

  • WDFC (WD-40) — AMC

• Friday

  • DAL (Delta Air Lines) — BMO

  • H (Hyatt Hotels)

Portfolio Review

: Refueling America’s Strategic Stock Piles

Wether we like it or not, the world is a dangerous place. And the best form of protection is prevention from attacks. That requires all sorts of tech and materials in order to keep us safe on a daily basis.

99.99% of us don’t think about the fact that on a daily basis we would be in harms way if it not for incredible USA intelligence and defense. So my investment into UAMY isn’t a vote for war, it’s a vote for further peace.

There’s a mineral called Antimony. It’s mined in China, South America, etc… almost 0 in USA. And then once you mine the ore, you need to put it into a smelter to refine it.

Why is Antimony important? It’s chemically mixed into ammunition to harden the materials. Antimony is a critical mineral used in munitions, weapons systems, flame retardants, & electronics So I thought to myself, the USA has said our ammunition stock piles are low… meaning big Trump daddy needs to buy a lot more stock piles for the military.

But… China has stopped selling us antimony. And the USA has no way to create it.

So I found the only the main (and essentially only significant) fully integrated antimony mining + smelting/processing company operating in the US right now…. And on a podcast the CEO said, ‘oh yeah I was talking with Don Jr. the other day…’

So I’m like hm….. I bet that Trump is about to buy a ton of Antimony from this company.

The CEO also noted to keep up with demand they’re going to push back renovations on facility so they can keep it operating at capacity.

• They also commissioned expanded smelting furnaces at their new Thompson Falls, Montana facility.

Last week —> They announced a press release that the government is buying 250M worth of Antimony from them… and they just delivered the first 50M. Stock went up 5-10% in value in 2 hours on the news.

$245 million (sometimes cited ~$248M) sole-source, 5-year IDIQ contract with Department of War. IDIQ meaning they can order up to that 250M, not that it’s required. So not as solid as money in hand… however, the contractor (UAMY) gets the sole-source award, which means they’re the only approved supplier for that specific antimony ingot requirement.

• First physical deliveries happened in Q2 2026: ~82,000 pounds of antimony metal ingots shipped.

• Total government orders to date: $57.3 million under this contract.

  • ~$2.6 million invoiced in June from those initial shipments.

So now USA will get our ammunitions inventory back, and this company is basically the only one in the USA as of 2026 that can provide it to us.

Great video if you want to meet the UAMY CEO

They’re also going heavy into Antimony exploration in Alaksa, and expanding into Tungsten (second hardest mineral behind diamonds, used for submarines, tanks, shields, etc..).

Around 2:30-3:00 in that video, Gary says something to the tune of, “we bought a property in Canada last May. And did enough work to get a third party resource report, and it shows $4.6B of future revenues from that property. So we are on a fast track to get that up in operation.”

So their current supply is becoming increasingly more valuable, and, they’re adding alternative revenue sources from other valuable assets and minerals.

Gary Evans, Perfect CEO:Market Fit

Prior to UAMY, Gary was CEO/Founder and scaled from $0 to $2B. He built Magnum Hunter Resources Inc. (MHRI) for ~20 years.

• Founded the company in 1985 with just $1,000 near the bottom of an oil price crash. Built it into a NYSE-listed energy company focused on unconventional resources (Appalachian Basin, Eagle Ford, etc.).

• Sold it in June 2005 for approximately $2.2 billion

Fundamentals Breakdown

Strong Revenue Doubling YoY

This company did $14M in 2024… doubled it to $39M in 2025…. and Gary is guiding for $110M+ revenue in 2026 (doubling yet again).

In addition, the quality of that $110M is supposed to be roughly $60M+ from DoW. Those should be fairly sticky as USA shifts material sourcing/processing from China to on-shore.

On the most recent earnings call, Gary said:

“...I’ve looked very hard at our $125 million revenue guidance for this year. I’m convinced we can do it. And you’re seeing that occurring now with deliveries to the federal government. I would say $75 million to $95 million of the $125 million will be federal government shipments of antimony ingots by the end of the year.

And with the ramp-up that’s occurring now, with the additional inventory we built with additional antimony supplies coming in, I’m highly confident that we can make those numbers.”

So if we rely on that $100M rev, then 10x Sales for a company growing 100% YoY on Revenue seems like a bargain, but ONLY IF, they can double once again in 2027.

Btw, they have no net debt also. And actually have a positive cash position, this is great news for a company who you’d think would be CapEx heavy. I think it shows efficiency. And no preferred stock. Nice set up. Only 100 employees as well. Efficient.

And tangible book value per share has grown nicely.

What are the replacement costs of assets?

1. Thompson Falls / Sanders County, Montana

Antimony Smelter & Processing Facility (Flagship US Asset)

• Only permitted/operating antimony smelter in the US

2. Fostung tungsten project in Ontario

Bought the Fostung tungsten project in Ontario for $5 million in June 2025.

In March 2026, they released a technical report that shows an Inferred resource of 14.62 million tonnes grading 0.17% WO3. Using the tungsten price at that time, they calculated the gross in-situ value (raw metal value in the ground) at about $4.6 billion

• This is an Inferred resource — the lowest confidence category. It’s based on limited drilling and needs a lot more work to prove it’s actually economic. Still…..

The US has produced almost no tungsten domestically for over 10 years. According to the latest USGS data, there has been no commercial tungsten mining in the United States since 2015.

3. Investment/Ownership 10% stake in Larvotto Resources (an Australian antimony/gold company)

They bought the shares on the open market in October 2025 for $37.2 million in cash

He admitted strategic partnership idea is dead, and now he’s just waiting to exit at right price.

Adding it all up: $800M?

I estimate about $150M in tangibles between land, machines, smelters, roads, Govt contract for $240M, etc.

Another $100M in intangibles between Gary’s background, team of experts, Govt relationships, permits, etc..

So $250M in tangibles + intangibles.

And then we need to factor in two more expenses: TIME, and CASHFLOW.

Time

Starting with time, a new entrant would need to gather permitting (air, water, hazardous waste), construction of furnaces, scrubbers, refinery. Securing supply chain feedstock, they’ve had to get around the fact China controls most of Ore supply. So let’s say at least 2 years, likely more. Let’s say $50M worth of time.

Cashflow

Let’s anchor it around Gary’s $125M in 2026. And, the $245M DLA Contract.

DALLAS - United States Antimony Corporation (NYSE:UAMY) delivered its first shipments under a $245 million supply contract with the Defense Logistics Agency during the second quarter of 2026, according to a press release statement.

The company shipped approximately 82,000 pounds of antimony metal ingots in two initial deliveries, generating roughly $2.6 million in invoices issued to the DLA in June. Two additional shipments await government inspection and authorization. The company has received total orders of $57.3 million since the contract began.Investors have responded enthusiastically to the contract progress, with shares delivering a 269% return over the past year and trading at $7.26 with a market capitalization of $1.08 billion. The stock has gained 45% in the last six months alone. Analysts project the company’s price could reach between $11.75 and $14, according to InvestingPro data, which tracks over 1,400 US equities with comprehensive metrics. (https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/us-antimony-begins-deliveries-under-245m-defense-contract-93CH-4770359)

As they become more vertically integrated, they’ll cut into one of their largest cost, which is securing the Ore from all over the globe. Once they can mine it themselves, gross margin at scale (once in-house Montana ore + expanded smelter running) should be 25–35%.

This vastly improves the current Q1 2026 gross margin of only 16%. They’re still stuck on expensive purchased ore. The 23% gross margin level from late 2025 is a good benchmark for what “normal” looks like before the big government contract ramp and in-house production fully hit.

So let’s say this year we do 19% (in the middle), on $125M that’s $23M in operating income. And they spend $25m/year on ops, so it should put the company near break even on Net Income.

Now looking at this from a Cashflow basis…

It’s tough to see it generating more Cash from Ops than CapEx.. so we’ll say FCF negative against next year. Which is yellow flag, but can be justified given they are small company in growth mode to satisfy clear demand.

And if we use Buffet’s Owners Earning logic.. they’re probably doing between +/- $10M away from breakeven.

Then we can back into thinking they have $25M of Net Income in 2027 based on scaling 100% Revenue again.

$525M of market cap. Plus the $300M we valued everything else at.

So maybe you can justify this by the numbers as a $800M company.

Price Action

You can see that in early June it broke below it’s 200 day moving average. That’s when I started acquiring it. I’ve been watching it for ~6 months now. It held strong on the 200 day up until this last month. Why did things change?

It’s also worth noting, the small cap mining ETF also broke it’s 200 day about the same date. So it’s likely an overall sector rotation as hard-assets decrease in demand as dollar strengthens?

UAMY Q1 2026, Missed Revenue, why?

Revenue for Q1 26’ was expected $12M.. yet revenue was reported as slightly down YoY ($6.8M vs $7.0M in Q1 2025), and 50% below expectations. On top of declined revenue, their gross margin collapsed from 34% → 16%.

So how does revenue stagnate, yet margins also get hit:

• Buying inventory = Cash going out to purchase raw ore/feedstock.

• Revenue = Only recorded when they process the ore into finished antimony products and ship/sell it to customers.

So the lag makes this slightly harder to underwrite.

From the official press release:

“Gross margin of approximately 16% ... primarily reflects higher antimony cost per pound sold ... as higher-cost ore moved through cost of sales. Q1 2026 gross margin did not benefit from any of the processing of the Company’s in-house antimony mined in Montana or from any antimony deliveries under the Company’s contract with the DLA. Both of these events are expected to begin contributing during the remaining quarters of 2026...”

Since then, they’ve delivered positive updates (first government shipments, furnace commissioning, etc.), and the stock has been choppy but trying to stabilize in the $7–8 range. Their in-house mining of Montana Ore at Stibnite Hill started April 2nd.. Q2.. and the New Thompson Falls furnaces should be up and running by end of June. So this next Q will see minimal benefit from these assets, though all very very promising.

Based on the work I just did, $800M feels like a fair entry price to me (including slightly recovered margins). It’s at $1.1B right now. So is it 27% above fair price? I mean… fair price is highly subjective.

The real value of this company is the rarity of their solution in 2026/2027.

What UAMY Does That Almost No One Else Can Right Now:

• Full vertical integration: Mine antimony ore domestically → mill/concentrate → smelt/refine into finished products (antimony metal ingots, oxide, trisulfide) ready for ammunition, flame retardants, etc.

• Operate the only significant permitted and operating antimony smelter in the United States (Thompson Falls, Montana).

• Hold the sole-source $245M DLA government contract for defense stockpile ingots.

🫱🫱 If you are an accredited investor, and want to get a full breakdown of my portfolio of 20 positions, submit your email here

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100K+ Substack Stats!

Thanks to all of you who have been supporting this weird newsletter so far! We just passed 100K views for the year.

Shout out to all of you 90+ people who liked this X post of mine:

Thank you as always for engaging! And thank you to Nick and Adam for subscring!

New Readers Get Featured in Next Week’s Edition:

For those of you who care, driving back up to Tampa for another date with her!

And then 5 of my friends are driving up Friday and we’ve rented a BNB for July 4th.

Hoping you all had a wonderful weekend.

In today’s edition we have a few cool treats.

• A 75 minute podcast with myself and my two friends. Hemant and Chase. H and Chase are two of my best friends from Draper University (shoutout Tim Draper and Adam Draper))

• My Good DEED of the week! I helped my house cleaners get a new dog for free!

• Overview of our fund performance this past week (tough week for markets, but I’m optimistic!)

Podcast: Finance Friends, ep. 1

“Chase Builds a Datacenter.”

You may catch our convo here.

Chase lives in Arizona and has strong connections within Real Estate and land permitting.

So he’s the perfect person to be building a new datacenter. He found the power generation partner, and the datacenter operator, and he’s bringing the land and permits.

You can see their rendering below.

Provide a caption (optional)

And thanks to Kinder Morgan ( ) he’s going to have a natural gas supply which enables them to generate power right one site. 100’s of MWs.

You can see the three circular dome buildings are the power generation station, and the smaller units to the left are the cooling racks and GPU units.

Really cool what he is up to! I suggest you watch the episode.

Free Dog, anyone?

Every single time my house cleaners come over (not that often!! I am clean!!!), they play with my dog for 25 minutes. They love my dog.

They always ask me if I ever know where to find a similar type of mini doodle.

Well! I got word of a doodle that needed a home. So we figured out a way to get them a dog for free!!!!

This morning at 9:30 AM we connected them to their new pup, and they all look so happy!

Aw amazing day! :)

Alright Dates, Datacenters, Dogs… enough with the D’s.. let’s start talking M’s!

Fund updates below.

Fund Performance vs SPY

On 6/16 I started tracking myself vs the each day.

I was mostly cash up until 6/16, and then assuming a pullback because of the 10+ week bull run, and because it’s end of Q.. I decided now was my time to take my shot.

And so I’ve been buying the SPY dip.

We formed a double helix.

I made a handful of mistakes this past week. Primarily, bought MU and MRVL and SMCI near the local top. I knew it wasn’t a great price, but let FOMO get the best of me. This has become more rare. That being said, I’ve fully recovered on

, and looking like it’s next.

It was tough... I almost sold.. but rather than panicking out of them... I bought the dip when it felt most painful. I scooped up some MU below $1,100.. which feels like a great move now, but felt awful at the time. And because of that perseverance, it’s canceled out my losses.

However, SMCI just had their office raided by the Taiwanese government an hour ago. So that’s crushed the stock today. If I had not bought more prior to this, I’d be a buyer.

Their growth, Elon partnership, and company history would suggest it’ll be volatile, but worth it for me.

That being said, if this turns out to be worse than I expect, I’ll sadly have to cut losses. But I don’t feel we’re at that moment yet.

-_-

My plan going into the last week was to get ahead of the July 1st re-balancing that wad sure to occur. And, it did. Most hedge funds have allocation requirements, and so at the end of a quarter they must get back to target allocations.

So if they had bought at $195 in April, and it grew to $240 by June 20th, then that profit likely puts them over allocation. Therefore, forced selling must occur at the end of the quarter to rebalance. And since all of Semi’s have run up hard this past Q.. that means a lot of forced selling in tech/semi.

My thesis on 6/16 was to buy that from them. And so, that’s what I’ve been doing all week.

I’m very nervous. But it’s better to buy into weakness than strength IMHO. MU rallied hard today, looks like it stabilized. And I expect MRVL or/and SMCI to do something similar by Weds.

We also have a short trading week, as Thursday is 1/2 day, and Friday is American’s 250th birthday!

Besides my AI mistakes.. I also made some smart moves.

I’ve been in Dave since $240, it’s now $350. And my investment into is seemingly smart now that AI power gen is so necessary. A lot of my other boring names worked also, like + +

Key Lessons

I’ve spent a ton of time refining my investment process, I continue to simplify it.

Leading with common sense, and then pairing it with one main filter, “this is a really great price.”

If I don’t think it’s great, or if I think it’s an ‘okay price’ then just pass. And, wait.

After studying 100’s if not 1000’s of company financials in depth, I’m starting to get a good feel for value. I should be able to make decisions based around, “is this a great price, or not?”

The challenge I got myself in to is that some of the ones I purchased above a great price, have now re-traced to a great price. And so I can either invest more, do nothing and hope it turns up, or cut losses and say that’s a mistake which should cost me.

I’ve made no significant moves in the last few days, because I’m trying to remain Zen. I might’ve paid a bit too much for some of these AI ones, but also if the growth continues, then they’ll all pop on next earnings call.

Arguing with Grok

I was DM’ing my deck to randoms on X, and got temp. banned for ‘spam.’

I then had to argue with Grok for the next 3 days.. aka, argue with ‘customer service’ to let me back on. You have no clue how frustrating it is trying to chat with an AI who will not listen. But we got it done! We are back!!!! FOLLOW HERE!

https://x.com/donversationz

Can’t stop, won’t stop.

~Don

I’m writing this Thursday, but have a second date this weekend in Tampa, so hopefully by the time you’re reading this Monday that will have gone well :)

(Full article available here on X)

Today’s note covers three topics:

1: A poem by James McCrae

2: An update on our fund

3: Insights on Natural Gas and LNG

Email don@virtualrealityinvestment.com or DM me on X with interest to come pitch your stock idea on Friday. I’m working to schedule our second episode on Friday, ping me to join us!

Subscribe now

‘Instructions Before Visiting Earth’ by James McCrae

I heard this poem the other day (featured at the end of the paragraph), and thought it was really quite cool. I wanted to share it with you all in case it resonates.

I believe in a central source of universal knowledge. See theories like Morphic Resonance by Rupert Sheldrake.

In short, he proposes that nature possesses a collective memory. This explains why turtles inherently know to walk towards the water when born.

And this theory applies to humans, it reframes our brains from being thinking machines into being antenna like receivers.

We receive signal from a central source (much like the Cloud and AI).

This poem below hits on that theme.

For all my XR fans out there.. you’ll immediately pick up on some of the jargon.

“3D simulation” and ‘fully immersive.’

I thought it was a cool poem, hope you enjoyed.

Fund Update + Investing Lessons

I took the gloves off.

Realized I was being overly technical and rule-oriented. That’s not my natural state.

I’m in the ring now, but before I get into the strategy, let’s rewind the past few months.

I tried 3 distinct investment styles over the past 12 months, each was a VERY healthy exercise to do.

3 Investment Style Experiments

They were as follows: value-oriented vs policy-oriented vs narrative-driven

1: Can I do a pure play value-oriented buy-and-hold Warren Buffet style?

2: Can I do a disciplined policy-oriented deployment David Swensen style?

3: Can I do a narrative-driven trading practice Stanley Druckenmiller style?

I’ve been really truly putting in the hours of studying all the various styles, and trying them out.

I’ve meticulously built strategies, ripped them down only when I felt it wasn’t for me.

There were three pivotal moments, in chronological order.

1: “ADBE is a value play.”

It’s not.

This is ADBE’s 5 year chart, and it’s still going down.

I looked at the numbers and thought they were superb. Everything a ‘value’ investor looks for.

Strong ROIC, low capital intensity, 10%+ owners earning yield, minimal debt, proven track record over decades.

So many good things.

And then when they reported their numbers this week, which are very strong, it dropped like a rock.

Investors hated it. But I’m a value investor, I thought ‘the market’ should not matter?

Well.. let’s be honest with ourselves, I’m probably an average value investor at best.

I love the principles of value investing, but sitting through a 65% decline for years, while the market rips…. something is off. Obviously, I am not understanding something fundamental.

And this is what I wasn’t understanding: value is subjective.

A company doing $100M profits, growing 50% annually, but trading at a P/E of 100, should still be considered more of a value play than a company doing $5B profits, growing 12%, and trading at a P/E of 10. Wait a minute… that doesn’t make sense!

That is literally comparing a trendy stock I’m watching to Adobe. By all means, the latter is a much stronger company, and on the surface clearly the better investment.

So then… why didn’t it work?

Because beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Value is subjective.

SpaceX is trading at $1.5 Trillion… and losing money hand over fist.

But Elon has fans, and the lure of Space travel triggers imagination.

And capturing imagination seems to hold as much, if not more value, than just today’s numbers.

We can get more into all this, as I have millions of thoughts, but I’ll sum it up by referencing the Efficient Market Theory.

Efficient Market Theory

This basically says that any information available today, is already priced into the stock.

Therefore, you find value by having an insight of the future which differs from the mainstream.

And since stocks are mostly 100% efficient, your returns over time are directly correlated to the delta between your view of the world and the market’s. Finding niche’s enables you to widen that gap.

Speaking of gap…. I also want to note something VERY interesting.

As I’ve been questioning the ‘value investing’ concept, I thought it smart to study the history of accounting.

Primarily asking myself, was it easier for Buffett to find obviously value in the 1960’s than it is today?

GAAP History

The Depression happened, and coming out of it every company had different accounting practices.

What a nightmare.

So the SEC was formed in the 1930’s, and by the 1960’s they had almost finalized rules around Depreciation.

Think about that….. one of the most important fundamental concepts in our accounting system, wasn’t even fully fleshed out until half-way through the 1900’s.

So when Buffet comes onto the scene around that time, his ability to study new concepts creates a massive advantage.

And Benjamin Graham in the 1930’s was able to find value.. because literally there were companies trading below their liquidation prices.

But in a world of AI, internet, X, and speedy information…. not to mention algorithm trading… there is NO way that those same advantages exist today.

And so… you really have to think about… WHAT IS THE MODERN EDGE?

Bringing this all back to Adobe

The stock is missing what I might be now starting to consider the most important aspect of investing in public equities.. Adobe was missing a durable growth narrative.

I will skip over the obvious issues like it’s CEO and CFO have stepped down…

The market can look past that under the assumption they pick a great leader.

But the “durable growth narrative” relied entirely on ADBE accelerating it’s growth.

So when they reported that Net New ARR decelerated for the first time in 10 years….

That breaks all hope for the narrative.

So I’m not necessarily saying Adobe is a bad bet, it’s certainly a more reasonable price than ever before, but that is in comparison to the durable growth we came to expect. If there’s already starting to be chinks in the armor… then investors are pretty smart, and it’s likely this company grows, but never again achieves its 25% YOY growth across all vectors.

The only hope for the rebirth of that narrative is their AI product becoming indispensable, and unable to be copied. Which is a tough sell in a world of vibe coding and pools of AI devs all across the world.

The lesson I took from that = GREAT MODERN INVESTMENTS ARE A MIX OF NARRATIVE X GROWTH NUMBERS.

2: Buffet + Munger Clip

I’ll keep it short. But I heard a clip from the 1990’s where they shared their investment process of identifying value.

Munger said, “we got subpoenas for our staff notes.. but not only do we not have notes, we don’t have staff.”

And the crowd laughed.

But really think about that…..

They just sit there all day talking, reading, studying. They’re not running complicated DCF Excel equations, and they’re not pretending they can be so precise.

As Buffet later says, “I’d rather be generally right than precisely wrong.”

He is looking for things that are so obvious that he doesn’t need a note pad, and he doesn’t need to run precise numbers, because it’s so obviously a good deal.

The discipline to wait for that is what makes Berkshire an iconic brand.

Buffet goes on to explain that he just does basic back of napkin math in his head, and thinks.

The lesson I took from that = GREAT INVESTORS USE COMMON SENSE AS THEIR PRIMARY TOOL FOR DEPLOYMENT.

3: Howard Marks book

I’ve been reading voraciously this year. And so I thought it would be helpful to myself (and maybe you) if I read a chapter from my fave books.

This helps embed the ideas deeper into my subconscious.

My friend Corey said he was cracking up when watching it. I re-watched… and yes it’s a bit more of a comedy show than just a chapter reading.

And when I read the first chapter of Howard Mark’s book, it became quote clear by the end of page 2 (1:30 - 3:41 in the video) that he specifically calls out, and emphasizes, the idea that investing should be intuitive, not formulaic.

Key Topics Covered:

• Introduction to the book (0:00 - 1:29): Introducing Howard Marks and discusses quotes from Benjamin Graham, Albert Einstein, and Charlie Munger regarding the difficulty of investing.

• Investing as an Art (1:30 - 3:41): Discussion on why investing cannot be fully routinized or reduced to simple algorithms because markets are psychological and unpredictable.

• The Goal of Beating the Market (3:42 - 5:35): The creator emphasizes that to achieve above-average results, one needs superior insight rather than just luck.

• Second-Level Thinking (5:36 - 8:02): The core concept of the chapter. First-level thinking is simplistic and superficial; second-level thinking is deep, complex, and considers the range of future outcomes, consensus psychology, and how to position oneself differently.

• Examples and Framework (8:03 - 13:58): The creator applies these concepts to a stock (UAMY), discusses the importance of having non-consensus views, and explains a matrix for understanding conventional vs. unconventional behavior in the market.

• Conclusion of Chapter One (13:59 - 15:35): The creator wraps up the discussion on why first-level thinkers are common, which in turn creates opportunities for second-level thinkers to succeed.

That was the final puzzle piece I needed to hear.

I had been studying and studying and studying and studying for years, I’ve tried so many different styles where I ‘stick to those rules.’

But now I need to let loose.

It’s VERY similar to an athlete who practices all week, but then on Football Sunday they are trained to stop thinking about the technicals, stop thinking about the mechanics, and just go play.

Let nature and flow-state control you.

So that’s what I started doing on Weds.

And also built you all a really incredibly well done, and complex graphic showing the parallels of investing to football. :)

So that’s what we’re doing… letting loose. NO rules.

And ONE goal - make money.

Rather than making my goal to follow the rules.. the only concern should be if this trade/investment/thesis will make money.

I’ve been living by that, and things are starting to feel way more natural.

It is not yet showing in the numbers (although we made more money in 3 days than 2 months), but it is showing in my own flow state.

So let’s hope we can compound this, and continue building our own unique investment style crafted around who I am by nature.

3: Insights on Natural Gas and LNG

This is a long newsletter today. If you made it all the way, good for you!

I just opened the camera and started working-remote live.

It’s basically just me talking through my Natural Gas thesis, and researching (Cheniere Group).

Chenier are the largest LNG exporters in the USA, they bought the prior leader in 2015/2016 when they went out of business.

And you can see by this chart…. that was pretty great timing to get into the LNG export business!

I’ll save my breath since I assume almost none of you made it this far, but watch the video if you want to hear my raw thoughts.

p.s. Email me if you want to Pitch your STARTUP or STOCK Idea at our Friday Convo.

This is a GREAT opportunity to get feedback on your investment pitch from me.

I saw the All In Podcast hosted and episode where four fund managers pitch their Stock ideas like a startup.

I love that.

Like Shark Tank, but you talk your book.

Join us on our Friday livestream where you can pitch your stock pick as if you're on Shark Tank. We'll ask you a handful of questions after your pitch, and hopefully we can all see the value you've discovered! We'll also of course feature links to your social profiles to help you gain followers who appreciate your perspective. Apply here:

I’m looking for the next 2 people who want to pitch their stock on Friday.

Please email me directly if interested: don@virtualrealityinvestment.com

Hard to believe, we’re 50% of the way done with the 365 day exercise! Week 26 out of 52. Maybe we’re finally starting to find our identity :), below is a video interview for you, and an opportunity to pitch in our next one.

There’s also some really interesting data I put together about how Warren Buffett, Bill Ackman, and Druckenmiller weight their portfolio at the end of the email.

Email don@virtualrealityinvestment.com or DM me with interest to pitch your stock idea on video.

Introduction to Sue Ennis, and Video Recap

First off, let’s properly introduce Sue. She’s a legend amongst small-caps on Wall Street.

She’s raised over a billion dollars for North American structured products and small cap companies, transforming undervalued fintech and digital asset companies into multi-billion-dollar entities.

She has held pivotal roles at Shyft Networks, Coinsquare, Voyager, and Invesco.

I was honored to welcome her a second time for our Special Guest feature series — Thank you to for joining us for a LIVE chat last week!

We ended up having 200 live viewers on X thanks to Sue offering to re-stream it to her audience. Excellent!

The conversation is a very unique one. Sue was well ahead of the past few major trends. She was an early investor in Bloom Energy

She was an early bag holder of Hut8 as well.

And was a leading voice in crypto all the way back in 2017.

Said simply, Sue skates where the puck is headed.

She says it on the call, but it’s quite clear she has a knack for identifying under-loved early micro-caps, and helping nurture them to success.

So just wait until you here what she is up to now….

(Hint) I couldn’t stop giggling.

Full video here:

Pitch your Stock

Apply to Pitch your Stock Idea at our June 26th Convo

I saw the All In Podcast hosted and episode where four fund managers pitch their Stock ideas like a startup.

I love that.

Like Shark Tank, but you talk your book.

Join us on our Friday livestream where you can pitch your stock pick as if you're on Shark Tank. We'll ask you a handful of questions after your pitch, and hopefully we can all see the value you've discovered! We'll also of course feature links to your social profiles to help you gain followers who appreciate your perspective. Apply here:

I’m looking for the next 2-3 people who want to pitch their stock.

Please email me directly if interested: don@virtualrealityinvestment.com

Portfolio Construction: Research on Buffet, Ackman, Druck, and more.

My current investor challenge revolves around position sizing.

I’ve noticed Druck, Buffett, and Ackman all concentrate 50% of their capital into top 5 positions.

Druck is just a different beast given he trades options as well, but, still clearly concentrated above 40%. He concen-trades (get it!?)

So we know top investors concentrate heavy in top 5 positions. 10% in 5, 5% in 10.

On a 1.5m fund, that’s 150K x 5, and 75k x 10

I need to learn if they concentrate just in the top 5 then diversity the rest, in which case 75K for 10 is likely too much.

let’s see..

Hmmm. Ok very interesting.

EXERCISE OF PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION THEORY:

Everyone hovers their Top 5 around 40-60%’ish.

Next 5 around 20%’ish.

Rest of portfolio varies between 0-30%.

No matter how you chop it, the moral of the story is that great value investors concentrate highly.

That sparks two questions:

1. what are their top 1 and top 2 position %’s?

2. of the top 5, what was cost basis vs market value?

What are their top 1 and 2 position %’s?

Even zooming all the way in, we still find heavy concentration.

Doing the math of their % in Top 5, vs % in top 1, I’d estimate they concentrate about 30% of their Top 5 Capital into just their #1 position. Which makes sense because in all scenarios #1 is about about 15% of overall portfolio, and on average top 5 capital is 50%. So double the 15% to get zoomed in concentration.

Fund + Top 5 Concentration:

Now the question which remains... how did those Top 5 get there? By expanding or by initial position sizing? Let’s see.

Of the top 5, what was cost basis vs market value?

Bit more tricky to figure out.

So we see Druck’s largest position is a bit of a mess, trim add trim add. Snip snap, snip snap.

But still, overall the trend is from 415K shares to 3K shares. So It’s fair to say, at least for this position, he scaled in over time. 3 years actually. His initial position was about 10-15% of peak, and ending allocation.

Now let’s check Apple and Buffett.

Apple and Buffett. The entire Apple position was bought 2016 to mid-2018, and the single biggest purchase was Q1 2018. After Q3 2018, Buffett never made another meaningful buy

But more specifically zooming in on his initial positing sizing, and scaling, we see he toyed with the idea until he felt the moment was right. Then he intrestingly went in with his two largest buys 1 year and 2 years after first entering Apple.

He started with $1B, almost as if he only moderatly liked the valuation. Then went in big with $10B and $12B buys in Q1 of 2017 and 2018. Almost all of his buying happened in his 4 most active quarters. And, roughly a year after his first initial tiny buy.

Let’s examine one more, my other fave investor, Howard Marks. Marks’s largest is TORM ( ), the shipping company.

Howard Marks TORM position:

This doesn’t help us, totally different beast. He led TORM’s 2015 recapitalization and converted its debt into a controlling equity stake; it only showed up in the 13F in 2018 because that’s when TORM became a U.S.-listed security. So the position was effectively handed to them by a restructuring, and ever since, the story has been distribution, not accumulation

Hm...

Alright, so without going deeper, let’s use common sense to find the moral of the story so far.

Value Investors..........

[1] Concentrate Top 5 (50%)

[2] Concentrate Top 1 (15%+), #2 (10%)

[3] Focus very little capital outside of their Top 10.

Comparing this to constructing a Fantasy Football team.

You have your top 2 Staples up top at QB/RB/WR. I prefer most invested in QB, second most in WR. RB’s are amazing, but durability always a bit of issue. Though, you just want your #2 to be best possible available player in those two roles.

Then, depending on your first 5 key player positions, you orient the rest of your team to fill in those gaps. In case of injury, etc.

I’d think portfolio mgmt is similar in spirit. You orient the rest of your portfolio around diversifying from your top 5 concentration. You first round pick makes all the difference in the world, and your second and third are critical as well. Finding a sleeper undervalued player in the 5-9th round takes a good season to a championship season.

All the same for portfolio allocation. Pick your #1 player, orient the team around that.

If my #1 player is Meta, then I need to be thoughtful about drafting another Big tech in round 2 or 3 given it’ll be harder to find diversity later on in that scenario.

QB - Big Tech

RB1 - These are usually old reliable. Consistent every week. Going to get your points.

RB2 - Either old reliable, but not long term solution. Or, usually younger, potential to become great, but not proven yet.

WR1 - These are usually total stud high flyers. They’ll put up 30 pts in a week.

WR2 - Usually younger as well, these have the potential to turn your team into championships when they work out and help give you two WR1’s.

WR3 - Prefer the rear to be held up by a solid 10 pt / week kinda guy. Gets easier reception points, keeps it safe. Doesn’t wavier far from being consistently slightly above average. Don’t worry about these.

TE - This speciality role almost acts as a commodity. Their value totally depends the game script. But if you have a good one, and game script leans your way, then you’re golden for that week.

If I had to just run the exercise fast off the top of my head:

QB - Meta

RB1 - XOM

RB2 - FSLR

WR1 - CRM

WR2 - INTU

WR3 - ADBE

TE - VEEV

That is soo heavily oriented towards software, or, dependence on AI.

OK, Now back to META.

I’ve gotten far enough along into my research that I feel they qualify for my bar as a clear candidate for #1 slot.

They check all the boxes on my checklist.

And they seem durable:

But, as I said, how do we know how to scale in? Well, if we learned anything from the exercise, it’s more important to be confident that’s your #1, and you don’t need to go big early on. Buff took a year to decide on Apple.

Hm... this is interesting.

“Almost every week there are different companies that come to us from outside asking us to both stand up an API service or asking if we have compute that they could buy from us at some premium to what we’ve bought it at,” he said — adding that “if we get to a point where we feel that we have overbuilt, then that is an option that we have.”

I would love to see a Meta Cloud. But I don’t think Zuck wants to veer from consumer.

We just saw Elon get into the business, it would make total sense to me if Zuck does the same. Mark is great with observing and extending what works.

If you compare Meta to the other Mag 7’s over 5 years.. it’s clear Meta is farthest off it’s ATH.

FWIW, it still looks like by the stochastic it has some way to go down. A 10-15% drop down to its 50 day MA would be iconic.

I’ve got to listen to earnings call, as apparently that’s where he mentions the Cloud concept.

1: ATH FOA engagement

2: Meta AI, super intelligence labs...

3: Customizing own silicon with

Nothing much else interesting.

I want to move on to study others in portfolio. But my gut keeps telling me this is an opportunity more than I recognize.

On that prior earrings call, I see from the livestream stock dropped to $620/share from $670 upon the negative news. And it ended around $630. So that kind of makes me think Meta at $590 is $30 below where peoples gut reaction says it should be.

Let’s listen to the questions portion now.

Yep, first one right on the key topic that matters, ROIC. Zuck stutters....

First one, “Share about the level of investment and the measurement stick for the ROIC of Muse and other products?”

ZUCK (defensive... he should have real metrics for this): “The thing to make sure is that we’re building leading models and products. Our model is build products that can get to 1 Billion people, then focus on monetizing them at scale. We invest in models, convert to products, and then monetize those flagship products. The basic milestones I look at, are technical quality to enable a great product, then second, how is it scaling? and third, how’s monetization and how do we increase profitability? I don’t think we have a precise plan for how each product is going to scale month over month. But we have a sense of the shape of where these things need to be.”

Alright.. he’s glorious on the product hitting 1B users. Let’s test Meta AI then..

I’m going to have them analyze this blog before release...

Not off to a great start.

Yikes.

I’ve tried it 5x, keeps saying ‘something went wrong’

Ugh. This is the reasoning..

Ok it actually sorted itself out.

And caught an error in my math from this article.

So it already added value :)

I’m really curious on business model here. I would use this for free if they can become the most used product.

Wanted to see if Meta AI could code.

It freezes there.

Then I have to manually get it working..

But it is working! Currently, “running a subagent.”

Wow, cool. It coded and executed a live pricing calc for me.

So my takeaway.. this will probably end up as good as Grok, Claude, GPT. It’s nearly already there under the hood, just the UI/UX needs some real work.

But I understand what Zuck is saying as far as, ‘we’re focused on getting this to 1B users.’

This is essentially going to be the Google Gemini playbook. Attach a leading AI free chat service to a giant user base of billions of monthly users. That’s what worked for Gemini.

I bet it works for Meta AI.

And I also feel now that Elon launched a cloud service, Zuck will do the same.

Then he’s executing on the very formidable and profitable playbooks of Gemini (Google) and xAI Cloud (Elon).

Those aren’t confirmed, but if those narratives take hold I think Meta re-rates. But truly, impossible to predict or know.

And I do not think Zuck wants to go cloud, he wants to make META AI bigger than GPT. It’s just hard to imagine it, but how knows, maybe…..

I hope!

~Don

https://x.com/donversationz

I don’t expect a ton of guest, but I’m just curious if anyone cares to use Linkedin still :)

You’re Invited to come meet Sue and chat AI/Energy with Founders and Investors:

Hi Everyone,

If you can’t make the live call, no worries I will share video next Friday!

Hoping you’re having a great start to the week.

With my last business, Spatial Collective, we ran weekly invite-only virtual events with special guest speakers at each one.

I’m going to begin doing this again, but monthly, and slowly ramp up as I find the groove.

This creates two opportunities for you all:

#1 RSVP in the below email and attend our kick-off convo on Wednesday with Sue.

#2 Prepare questions you have about humanoids and electricity/energy, these are Sue’s expertise.

I’ll share more below.

But first, announcements..

Starting next week, I think I’m going to begin sending these emails every Friday instead of Monday, and they’ll be videos instead of write ups. ^.

^{RSVP for Weds Event}

We welcome back, Sue!

Sue was featured in our Week 11 newsletter. March 2nd.

At the time, she was the head of investor relations for Hut8.

Since that time, they are up 150%…..!!

Ugh, I wish I invested.

Since then, she has joined a NEW company.

RSVP to come learn what she’s up to, next.

This new business of hers is even more wild.

The last one was a AI datacenter play.

This new one is AI…. humanoids.

And the company history is going to make you giggle, this is sure to be a conversation you won’t want to miss.

~Don Stein

RSVP HERE

You might have already known that.. but when I read that fact it blew my mind.

Data shows the USA is slowly becoming the Middle East as far as production and exporting of our Oil & Gas? Wow. So I dove deep, and this is my personal and comprehensive analyzation for myself centered on the United States historic transition into the world’s premier natural gas and LNG exporter. This transformation is occurring against a backdrop of intensifying global competition, where nations are racing for technological and energy abundance to secure sovereign independence. By examining the structural countermoves between major world economies, I am evaluating how deregulation and strategic energy exports serve as foundational pillars for domestic economic growth.

USA v China: Chess from the Best

Modern international relations revolve around three imperatives: sovereign self-sufficiency, public safety, and a race to secure technology, fuel, and mineral abundance. Within this competitive landscape, the United States has deployed a multi-pronged approach to sustain its position. The federal government aims to dilute federal liabilities through economic expansion, protect regional semiconductor production via the Chips Act, and implement targeted tariffs to stall foreign rare earth dominance while building local processing capacity. Simultaneously, Washington enforces trade restrictions on energy flows from adversaries while utilizing regulatory deregulation and immediate tax write-offs to stimulate drilling.

Brief word from our sponsor

^{Last week I shared I was struggling with the fund, and investing. I sorted myself out, happy to report we are now in the green.}

Conversely, China has enacted countermeasures to challenge the supremacy of the US dollar. Beijing is accumulating gold, establishing a payment settlement layer in Switzerland, replicating proprietary software models, and promoting open-source artificial intelligence. To secure its commodity imports, China restricts rare mineral exports, enforces price caps, and enters long-term purchase agreements with Qatar, Australia, and Russia. Furthermore, Beijing deploys digital misinformation campaigns to exploit societal divisions in Western states.

This geopolitical polarization has established several core secular themes for the next decade:

• Computing and technology infrastructure

• Materials and mineral processing

• Military systems and national defense

• Power generation, storage, and distribution

• The United States as a primary energy exporter and self-sufficient consumer

• Reserve asset diversification (gold versus stablecoins)

• Uncorrelated holdings (healthcare, retail, and real estate)

Natural Gas is USA’s Global Advantage

The United States now produces more crude oil and methane gas than Saudi Arabia, converting liquefied natural gas (LNG) into a highly lucrative export asset. Methane shipments are expanding rapidly, marking the most accelerated export growth phase in American history. Supply projections indicate US LNG exports will reach 14 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2026, representing a 44 percent expansion from the 9.7 Bcf/d recorded in 2022. This flow is met by robust demand from Continental utilities, Asian customers, EUROPE!, and industrial consumers, with industrial gas use reaching a record 24 Bcf/d in 2026 to power petrochemicals, ammonia synthesis, and Gulf Coast manufacturing.

This structural shift is occurring alongside an unprecedented surge in domestic electricity consumption. For a decade following the 2009 recession, power sales in the United States remained flat, growing at just 0.6 percent annually despite a 2.3 percent annual GDP expansion. Today, this stagnation has ended due to the processing needs of artificial intelligence data centers. Projected demand from these computing facilities will scale from 31 gigawatts (GW) in 2025 to 75.8 GW in 2026, reaching 108 GW in 2028 and 134.4 GW by 2030.

This computing expansion is forecast to triple data center power consumption to 400 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030, introducing 240 TWh of fresh load to the electrical grid. This increment will be divided among multiple sources:

• Renewables: 50 percent (120 TWh)

• Methane Gas: 33 percent (80 TWh)

• Sun-powered, nuclear, and alternative sources: 17 percent (40 TWh)

While green energy will capture half of this load, gas-fired generation will double its absolute volume, scaling from 75 TWh to 155 TWh while maintaining a stable 39 percent market share. This indicates that natural gas is not a transitional bridge, but a permanent pillar of the technological expansion.

We’re going to need A LOT OF GIGAWATTS!

Strait of Hormuz Causes a Western Pivot

The vulnerability of international energy corridors was demonstrated when Iranian missile strikes targeted the Ras Laffan complex in Qatar and the Habshan facilities in Abu Dhabi. These actions disabled 12.8 million metric tons of annual export capacity, representing 17 percent of Qatar’s output and 3 percent of global supply. Because the Strait of Hormuz mediates 20 percent of global LNG and 25 percent of seaborne oil transit, a prolonged closure has removed a fifth of the world’s liquefied fuel supply from the market, with complete rehabilitation expected to require three to five years.

This supply vacuum has caused worldwide prices to surge to levels three to seven times higher than United States benchmarks, creating an immense economic incentive for export. Consequently, state-level buyers are turning to North America. Following bilateral meetings with President Donald Trump in Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed interest in securing US oil and natural gas to bypass Middle-Eastern maritime risks. This interest represents a reversal of the trade dispute in 2025, during which Beijing had imposed a 25 percent tariff on US gas imports.

Venture Global and Cheniere Energy

+

VG is a founder-led, vertically-integrated exporter that has nearly doubled its EBITDA guidance for 2026 to a range between $8.2 billion and $8.5 billion, driven by the commissioning of its Plaquemines facility. Plaquemines is fully insulated from spot market volatility, with 13 long-term sales and purchase agreements covering 19.7 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of its 20 MTPA nameplate capacity. Offtakers include transatlantic utilities like EnBW and SEFE, alongside Trafigura, Hanwha, Chevron, and China Gas.

To capitalize on this worldwide supply deficit, investors are focusing on Gulf Coast liquefaction terminals, where Venture Global and Cheniere Energy control five of the seven operating facilities.

While Venture Global fell out of favor due to a winter storm early in the quarter and delayed pricing benefits from the March supply shock, its fundamental metrics remain compelling.

The firm is trading at an 8 percent owner’s earnings yield, supplemented by a 4 percent expansion rate, and has achieved an 11.36 percent annualized return on invested capital (ROIC) over the past five quarters while generating $700 million in free owner’s earnings quarterly.

Mike Sabel, a former executive at First Sierra Financial, and Robert Pender, a former partner at Hogan Lovells, lead the company and retain over 80 percent of its common stock.

However, the asset carries distinct risks, including execution delays on its 36 liquefaction trains, contract arbitration disputes with Shell and BP, and elevated leverage. This contrasts with Cheniere Energy which employs a fee-based tolling model. Cheniere carries minimal debt, relies on a tenured corporate executive team, and acts as a lower-risk utility proxy, offering investors a different risk-reward profile.

Upstream Allocations in the Permian and Haynesville Basins

Because local computing facilities require colossal volumes of gas-fired power, forward pricing curves for gas have risen. To capture this trend, the portfolio has focused on upstream producers with premier positions in the Permian and Haynesville basins, located near exporting hubs.

EQT Corporation () is the foremost gas supplier in the United States. Led by Toby Rice, EQT is the chief beneficiary of utility demand from the Virginia data center cluster due to its extensive Appalachian pipeline connectivity.

Similarly, Expand Energy () represents the biggest gas producer in the country following its recent business consolidation.

Expand Energy maintains a balanced footprint across Texas and Louisiana, serving both export facilities and regional utilities. Legendary investor Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management holds a $575 million stake in Expand Energy, making it his second-largest equity holding.

Comstock Resources () offers a speculative play, holding the largest acreage position in the East Texas gas play.

Comstock has been led by CEO Jay Allison and CFO Roland Burns since the 1990s, and has received over $1 billion in capital backing from Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones.

Midstream Networks and Pipeline Integration

The transportation of fuel is controlled by midstream operators. Kinder Morgan ($KMI) operates 80,000 miles of pipelines and 136 terminals, moving 40 percent of United States methane gas. Led by founder Richard Kinder, KMI provides stable cash flow.

Upstream of KMI, Williams Companies ( ) functions as an integrated infrastructure giant. Williams lately commercialized its $2.3 billion behind-the-meter Neo project, which will deliver 682 megawatts of dedicated capacity to data centers by late 2028.

WMB also signed the Atlas agreement to supply 164 million cubic feet per day of gas to Northeast computing hubs, alongside the Silver Spur pipeline expansion to serve Idaho. These contracts support WMB’s targeted 10 percent EBITDA compound annual growth rate.

For secondary hydrocarbons, ONEOK () controls the processing and transmission of gas liquids. Led by CEO Pierce Norton, who established ONE Gas as a separate entity in 2014, ONEOK derives its revenue from volume-based fees, protecting its balance sheet from commodity fluctuations.

EVERYONE NEEDS ELECTRICITY

Once gas is converted to electricity, it must be routed through physical interconnects. TE Connectivity () is a chief provider of this specialized hardware, selling connectors, busbars, and cable assemblies designed to handle the power density scaling of AI server racks from 10 kilowatts to 600 kilowatts.

TEL is experiencing robust momentum, with its data connectivity business tracking toward $2.4 billion in sales for fiscal year 2026. The company subsequently expanded its grid portfolio by purchasing Richards Manufacturing for $2.3 billion, securing a dominant position in North American underground distribution equipment.

TE Connectivity trades at a favorable 22 times earnings, representing a substantial discount compared to its direct competitor, Amphenol (), which trades at a multiple of 50.

Amphenol closed its first quarter of 2026 with record sales of $7.6 billion, up 58 percent year-over-year, driven by an 80 percent surge in its IT datacom segment. Led by CEO Adam Norwitt and CFO Craig Lampo, Amphenol is capturing immense market share, boasting a historic book-to-bill ratio of 1.24.

Heliocentric Generation and Solar Manufacturing Moats

While gas provides baseload security, heliocentric generation represents a crucial alternative. First Solar () is the leading thin-film solar module manufacturer in the Western Hemisphere, shielding itself from Sino price controls and raw material dependencies by maintaining its production facilities in middle America. First Solar reported record-breaking first-quarter sales of $1 billion, up 24 percent, alongside a 65 percent increase in net income to $350 million. The firm maintains a contracted backlog of 47.9 gigawatts, representing $14.4 billion in revenues through 2030.

First Solar operates with a strong net cash position of $2 billion, allowing the enterprise to invest heavily in research and development. This provides a wide safety margin for investors, who can capture a starting asset yield of 6 percent with an annualized growth rate exceeding 20 percent.

Wrap Up

It’s hard to debate. Nat Gas is becoming THE critical USA export, and a valuable fuel source for Datacenters

This source for electricity will only become more valuable as time unfolds.

Get your popcorn ready, going to be a wild show.

Thank you for reading. If you liked what you read, throw me a follow on X: @Donversationz!

~Don

---------------------------------------------

DISCLAIMER: I am actively building this investment thesis into my portfolio. Absolutely nothing contained in this report constitutes investment advice. This analysis is presented strictly and solely for educational and informational purposes. Always perform your own thorough due diligence or consult with a licensed professional before making any financial decisions

STORY OF THE YEAR

David Solomon Wins SpaceX Deal from DM’s

David Solomon, Goldman Sachs CEO, just won the lead role on what is likely going to be the biggest IPO in history. While other firms were going through normal channels, he reached out directly to Elon Musk on X Chat. Goldman Sachs secured the lead-left position on SpaceX’s IPO, which is targeting a valuation as high as $2 trillion and a raise of around $75 billion.

Most people still picture investment bankers in dark suits making polished presentations in wood-paneled rooms. Solomon has never fit that image. I would bet only some of you who are very well informed knows that the Goldman Sachs CEO is also a well known DJ.

In 2007, while still rising through Goldman’s ranks, he helped the firm win the lead role on Lululemon’s IPO — a deal that ultimately raised $327.6 million — by showing up to the pitch dressed in the client’s clothes instead of a suit.

Back in 2007, when Lululemon was going public, he showed up to the pitch meeting wearing Lululemon clothes, including a maroon blazer paired with their sweatpants. At the time, UBS had tried to stand out by organizing a yoga flash mob in Central Park while wearing Lululemon gear. Goldman took a different approach and sent its team dressed in the brand’s activewear. Goldman won the joint bookrunner role on a deal that raised $327.6 million at $18 per share, and the stock jumped 56% on its first day of trading.

This week he did the modern version of the same thing. Instead of relying only on traditional banking channels, Solomon slid into Elon Musk’s DMs on X to pitch Goldman for the lead role on the SpaceX IPO. It was a direct move in a field where most banks were competing through more conventional routes to secure a piece of what could become the largest IPO ever attempted, with a targeted raise of roughly $75 billion.

The pattern is clear if you look for it. Solomon has a track record of winning high-profile deals by being willing to do things that other bankers consider too unusual. Whether it was helping Goldman land the Lululemon IPO that raised $327.6 million in 2007 by dressing in the brand’s clothes, or sending a direct message to Elon Musk in 2026 for the SpaceX deal, the goal has stayed consistent — stand out to the actual decision maker rather than following standard protocol.

Join @Donversationz and friends on X!

Giving a special shoutout to @SayNoToTrading

He’s putting out some of the most thoughtful investment research on X. And he is NOT trading.

Also like to shout out , he saw my post on X asking for investment thesis rebuttal, and he delivered a great Substack response.

Want to have your X or Linkedin tagged in our blog?

Engage on X and get your profile featured to our readers!

AI Moment of the Week

Claude found a $500K BTC passphrase

A man who bought Bitcoin in college over a decade ago just regained access to roughly $400,000 to $500,000 worth of Bitcoin that had been locked for more than 11 years. He had changed the wallet password years earlier and spent over a decade trying to recover the funds without success, despite multiple attempts using specialized recovery tools.

He had changed the password years earlier, tried every recovery method he could think of, and even ran **trillions** of password combinations through recovery software. Nothing worked for eleven years. The roughly 5 BTC he purchased when Bitcoin traded around $250 per coin remained inaccessible as the price rose sharply over time.

Then he uploaded files from his old college computer and let Claude analyze them. The AI helped identify an older wallet backup file and, more importantly, spotted an error in how he had been running the btcrecover tool. It turned out the password needed to be concatenated with a shared key in a specific way that his previous attempts had missed after years of failed brute-force efforts.

Claude did not break Bitcoin’s encryption or guess the password on its own. It acted as a technical assistant that could read old files and debug the recovery script faster and more accurately than human efforts.

Behavior Correction Update

I’ve set up major guardrails

This week I’m allowing myself no trading, no stop-losses. I made long term investments in quality companies, roughly $350K deployed, and I don’t need to trim the hedges every day.

So I’ve deleted CNBC, X, and other financial Apps from my phone.

I’ve cleared my schedule, and I’m doing nothing this week but sitting alone in a quiet room underwriting 25 companies.

The goal is to enter Friday having made 0 trades, and have in depth and thoughtful price targets for 25 of the top companies I’ve been tracking for the last year.

I did a great job last week of reducing my trading, we did not lose money, however, the distraction was still real. I would get a notification every hour about a stock and then feel compelled to deep dive.

The better mode of operations is ignoring the noise, and just purely hunting for signal.

Investments Last Week

We funded Veeva Systems

VEEV is one of the leading providers of industry-specific cloud software for life sciences. Their Vault platform is widely used by pharmaceutical companies for clinical operations, regulatory information management, quality, safety, and commercial functions. Major companies like Pfizer use multiple Veeva applications across these areas to help manage important parts of the drug development and commercialization process.

In short, this is what I love:

• Founded in 2007 by Peter Gassner (still Founder-led, 19 years at the helm)

• Double-digit revenue growth every year for over a decade

• 1,400+ customers: all top 20 life science companies, large pharma, emerging biotechs

• 83% subscription revenue, which grew 17% YoY to $2.68B in FY2026

• $6.56B in cash + ST investments, against just $95M in total debt

• $2B share buyback program (first-ever, announced January 2026)

• Added to S&P 500 Index on May 7, 2026

• Elite 10-year history: Revenue CAGR 23%, Net Income CAGR 32%

• Customer retention exceeds 95% with net retention of 120%

• Key margins (current): Gross 75.5%, Operating 28.7%, Net 28.5%, OCF 44.3%, FCF 43.4%

You can read my personal research here if it interest you.

~Don Stein

X ←←←←←←←

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(Click Here if you Prefer to Read Articles on X)

First Month Managing Our Investment Fund

From “trader” to “investor.”

Before we review the first month, I want to explain the mental shift I’m going through.

Before this fund, I’d take 100% of my net worth and put it in Crypto. I’d mis-time the top and lose 75% of my profits, but I’d make 25% painfully. Stocks similarily did involve me going all in at risky moments.

That got us here. But it will not get me to where I want to go. If I’m going to grow into a professional money manger, the #1 rule is don’t lose money. And the best way to insure your profit is to work hard, say no a lot, orient towards value, and hold for the long term to let compounding work magic.

Those are fundamentally different strategies than my timing based trading mentality in which I am trying to shake.

Ok, now how does this all tie into the fund?

It’s been 1 month since we first funded our IBKR account. The very first penny our fund ever made was from Berkshire as a symbolic tribute to Buffet.

Plenty of first-time small issues have occurred this month; hitting wire limits from the bank, on-boarding to Admin back office, Claude Credit limits when coding our research software, etc.. But as is the nature of the beast.

As of this writing (May 15th, 1 PM ET), the fund investments are in total down -0.55% on Net Asset Value (-$8,000). We are down because the “trader” in me is still trying to emerge.

The majority of losses came from three FOMO-driven careless trades on DAVE(-$6,000K), QCOM(-$2,500K), CBRS(-$1,000K). We are intending to long-only invest, so my disappointment in this trading behavior is vast.

While I’m kicking myself for a lack of micro-discipline, I’m thankful for my macro-discipline. I limited risk exposure in the first month, I avoided too much chasing a hot market, and I kept 65%+ of the fund in cash. This naturally allowed me to make some mistakes (knowing I would), but nothing critical. However, if not corrected these will compound and run us out of business.

Our Top 5 performing investments as of writing are NVDA (+$1,500), AAPL (+$1,500), XOM (+$1,000), MSFT(+$1,000), ADBE (+$500).

Roughly $380,000 deployed so far of the $1,420,000 fund size.

My hope is to close more capital from my friend who committed in April to invest $250K when he receives liquidity in June. I think he’s open to raising it to $500K, but it’s quite clear I first need to prove I’m capable of being wise, thoughtful, and delivering performance. If I can’t do that, then I don’t deserve more money. I must prove myself.

My sole focus is on self-correcting the below mistakes, and organizing around a standardized deployment process.

As my adviser/LP wisely stated when we had lunch last week, “no LP pays for randomness.’’

So the below is an open-letter about the mindset shift I’m going through. Shedding my old skin as a trader/gambler, and emerging as a disciplined top 1% investor with a replicable process.

So I’m excited to show you all what I’ve built……

But first…

Giving a special shoutout to @MatthewSpositi on X

He’s a random guy from the internet who found my article (which is now up to 31K views!), and left a very thoughtful thank you.

I hope the advice works for you, and me, Matt!

Want to have your X or Linkedin tagged in our blog?

Engage on X and get your profile featured to our readers!

INVESTOR #1 vs INVESTOR #2

Jekyll and Hyde

I’d say the first month is a tale of two investors.

Investor #1 is insanely diligent, thoughtful, heavily research focused, disciplined, and errs on the side of caution when pricing in a margin of safety. He’s using our custom built website each time, and he is investing for the long term from a desktop computer.

Investor #2 is impulsive, undisciplined, youthfully hopeful, over-exuberant, passionate, risky, and unsettled. He’s triggered by CNBC and X, then moves fast on his mobile device to make a quick buy that ‘just must happen right now!’

After analyzing this behavior, I’ve identified the core difference: one is willing to follow rules, and one is not. And I’ve also identified what that one rule is.

Statistically, looking at the various units I’ve deployed over the past month; Investor #1 appears 50% of the time, and Investor #2 sabotages the other 50% of the time.

Investor #1 funded these deals:

• NVDA: Bought 1 unit below $200 at FAIR price. Used low-risk stop-loss strategy to sneak in a second unit below $220.

• APPLE: Bought 1 unit below $280 at FAIR price. Used low-risk stop-loss strategy to sneak in a second unit below $290.

• SLDE: Did incredibly deep research on the shifting supply x demand dynamics in Florida’s insurance market. Found a company growing 20%, with a repeat IPO founder, large personal stake in the biz, history of success, trading at a price that so clearly was at or below FAIR it would be hard for me to make a mistake. Massive margin of safety. Stuck to rules, only bought 1 unit.

• INDV: Did great research, am confident in my forward projections of their revenue and net income whereas even if they drop to a 16 PE next year, and only hit low end of income projections, we still walk away without losing money. Massive margin of safety right now.

• ADBE: Also absolutely a FAIR price of $250, felt a GREAT price was $220. But it showed strength around $235 so bought a second unit on tight stop loss just before it bounced to $245. Then raise stop loss so we can’t lose money, but have upside.

• CRM: This started with a mix of Investor #1 and 2, but Investor #1 took control over time. I’ll spare you the details, but Investor #1 did some smart disciplined things to get average price down without too much further capital exposure.

Investor #2 funded these deals:

• Bought DAVE after it ran up 50% in a month, broke my 1 unit rule, got my ass handed to me (-$5K realized, $1.5K unrealized)

• Bought CBRS after it run up 80% post earnings, at least stuck to my 1 unit rule, hardly even know what the company does, it blew past my “can’t lose more than $150 stop loss” and I had to realize a 7X loss (-$1K)

• Bought QCOM after it ran up 50%, broke my 1 unit rule, kept trading in an out all week as it went from $240 to $200

• Set my Meta price targets to buy 1 unit at a FAIR price of $615, became undisciplined and ended up buying 2 units at $260. Broke my rule (-$2K unrealized loss)

• ADP saw the worst of both worlds. Investor #1 identified $199 as a very FAIR price, but didn’t buy it because he feared moving too early. Then ADP reported great earnings, shoots up to $218, which is where Investor #2 stepped in with massive FOMO and bought that local top.

• ETH/BTC/BMNR/XXI/MSTR: Buying 4% of portfolio into crypto over the past two weeks in anticipation of the Clarity Act mark up seemed wise. We were up 5% after the Senate Banking commit made final approval. Didn’t take profits. Convinced myself this was a value buy, “XXI owns $3.5B worth of BTC at $80K, with an Enterprise Value of $3B there’s 12% delta.” But once again I broke my rule of 1 unit at Fair pricing, ended up putting in twice as much as I should have. And rode it down to take loss.

None of those operating businesses are inherently bad companies, in fact they’re all great, but the core difference stems from my deploying in a patient vs non-patient manner.

FOMO vs FOME

Fear Of Missing Out, vs, Fear Of Moving Early

Investor #1 operates from a place of, “It’s insanely unlikely that I will lose money on this over the long term, even in a worst case scenario, I won’t lose much..’

Investor #2 operates from a place of, “this is absolutely going to make money, and the window of opportunity is closing with each second I don’t make a move.”

Investor #1 is patient, waits for his pitch, and has fallen in love with the idea of hunting for bargains in high quality companies.

Investor #2 lets his emotions dictate action.

Now, not all of these mistakes happened when I had clear rules set, some happened prior. And, not all happened when I had the website up and running intended to prevent Investor #2 from taking over (which, although the website is not perfect, it is absolutely increasing the friction in which Investor #2 must overcome). But still, the behavior is unquestionable, and unacceptable.

Behavior Correction

Easier said than done

How come everyone knows to eat healthy and work out, yet not everyone does it? Discipline.

And that is exactly the challenge I’m facing with these rules, I know that I should stick to them without any veering, but sometimes that twinkie just looks so good. Or, sometimes I’m just too tired to go to the gym, so I’ll do it tomorrow.

Well, no. I don’t do that with my fitness. And I cannot afford to do that with my money.

I printed those 3 rules out on paper, and taped them all over my house.

Example of it Working

I bought PRIM on a Solar Energy thesis, well thought out, great biz, but I felt the FAIR price was $97. I bought it at $107 anyways. It went up to $115. Instead of being happy about this, I recognized I broke my rule, and sold it. It’s since dropped to $111, and I hope it goes to $97 so I can hold it in my portfolio. But, I knew it broke my Rule #1, and so therefore I had to sell.

My Theory on Why Investor #2 Takes Over

Investor #2 is not an idiot, he’s actually quite foresightful, but he’s just not disciplined.

• He funded NXT and went up 10% in a day. But didn’t take profits.

• He funded QCOM and went up 10% in a day. But didn’t take profits.

• He funded ETH and went up 5% right after Clarity Act mark up, then didn’t take profits, and went above policy allocation rules.

• He funded XOM and is up 6% on the position today.

• Bought CRCL and rode it up 15% in a day.. Then rode it back down.

Buffet says: ‘If you have an IQ of 130, you can give 30 of it away. The most important thing for investing is temperament.”

My edge is Investor #2, but it’s a double edged sword.

Investor #2 is the engine, but if it overheats, the whole car breaks down. And we’ve been proven to overheat at a moment’s notice.

For me to grow into a top 1% investor, I need to maintain Investor #1’s rule-following discipline, combined with Investor #2’s insatiable curiosity.

In other words, I must let Investor #1 drive, and let Investor #2 control the music.

Wrap Up

Thank you for reading

As I said at the top, while I’m kicking myself for a lack of micro-discipline, I’m thankful for my macro-discipline. I limited my risk exposure in the first month, I avoided too much chasing a hot market, and I kept 65%+ of the fund in cash. This naturally allowed me to make some mistakes, but nothing critical.

I’m very proud of the hard work I’m doing on research. I feel very comfortable underwriting these companies.

And I’m extremely proud of the Diligence software I built with Claude.

The thoughtful nature I’m sifting through the market should absolutely lead to returns over time.

But the key for me is to avoid trading, optimize for buy+hold, and NEVER break my rule of buying a security above its FAIR value as determined by conservative estimations.

As Howard Marks said, “Investing is like amateur tennis. Don’t worry about hitting winners, just don’t hit losers.”

If you’ve invested with me, thank you. It means the world, and I’m doing everything I can to deliver the both of us outsized returns.

If you’re just a friend watching me grow, then thank you for caring, and I hope one day to manage your capital in a stress-free manner.

I put 100% of my liquid capital in this. So I must figure this out, and fast. I’m all in.

~Don Stein

X Twitter / / Linkedin

“To mitigate mistakes, checklists are a necessary ingredient before airline flights. Just as they are before deploying capital.”

-Warren Buffett, (yes, even he uses a checklist)

(full post available here)

After $1K of Claude Credits, and 2 weeks of relentless work, it’s working!

Any modern fund needs AI to build an edge. From sourcing to filtering to analyzing to deploying, AI fundamentally acts as an advantage for managers.

It can scale one person to do the work of 1 MD and 4 Analysts.

Some of you may be experiencing this power as your recent grad can’t find work.

But with all change comes opportunity.

Below is an example to learn from, of how personal AI software is sure to be the future.

Every smart person will be doing this in the next 6-12 months.

So I’m excited to show you all what I’ve built……

But first…

Hey, I’m Don!

I LOVE INVESTING. If you do too, then stop, and subscribe below. If you hate investing, probably should also subscribe and I’ll teach you to love it.

Subscribe this week and get featured in next weeks newsletter that goes out to 5,000 readers!

Featured Friends:

This week we had special engagement with one human, and one robot. I appreciate whatever bot is running @theaiportfolios on X, I think this is sage advice to those of us who struggle with trading:

And the second shoutout from X goes to Rico. He used AI to code his own short-term momentum indicator for Stocks. Maybe he was influenced by me :), because he tagged me when launched.

Emmanuel has also been all over the Substack, thank you for engaging!

And a very cool shoutout from $DAVE!

Now in 2026, I’m building an institutional grade investment fund on top of a fully proprietary AI platform. We’ll be going live to @ThoughtfulCapLP with the fund thesis! (Website launching June 1st).

My X article last week topped out at 23,900 views! My most viral ever!

Thank you for engaging!

This year, I set the goal to publish a thoughtful blog every Monday.. 52 of them! Don’ Daily is a recap of the entrepreneurship adventures I collect, as well as the new lessons I’m constantly learning from investing.

Engage on X and get your profile featured to our readers!

Read our article on X with a built-in audio AI bot that summarizes it for you!

Project Codename: Luminous Wisp

When I first set up the website last month, they assigned the project name Luminous Wisp. I have no idea what it means, but it’s been our Project Codename, so it’s grown on me.

A Robust Dashboard

So here’s the homepage I open my software to:

I can quickly see a Dashboard of where I’ve been investing, and the number of companies in each stage.

Scrolling down and there’s a Bird’s Eye View of the entire pipeline (with hovering cards so I can remember analysis):

And below that is an overview of my active investments vs active trades:

I’ve essentially built a Dashboard that tracks everything about where we’re investing, and what we should be tracking to maintain thesis.

In Depth Company Profiles

At the heart of this process, is a 7 step system going from research to investment.

Those 7 steps (sorry they’re hard to see) are the sequence I must move through with each deal.

You can see I’m pulling and calculating THOUSANDS of custom metrics across all these companies.

Here’s just 1 of the 7 pages for you:

Now let’s dive into one of the 7 individual pages.

Here’s the ‘Current Value’ tab on Apples Stock page.

And thanks to software, it auto-calculates all key metrics that I care about in the blink of an eye. Hooked into real-time financial data via an API.

Further scrolling, we get to the valuation ranges. This helps me understand where the current stock price is relative to its potential movement (based on PE multiples and thoughtfully-adjusted TTM revenue).

And to help me understand what warrants a ‘FAIR’ multiple per each individual stock, I pull and calculate custom multiples metrics over the past 1-12 Quarters.

This helps me comp the current multiple to historical multiple averages.

At the bottom of each of the 7 steps lies a ‘reasoning’ input.

This is where I summarize all my findings.

Investment Memo

The 6th step requires I complete an Investment Checklist. This is the final information used to auto-capture our investment memo for us. And is the final step required before I can invest.

One cool feature is this matrix I built to help me mentally model where the deal fits into our overall portfolio structure.

And to ensure I’m not shortcutting our methods, I even have a literal checklist that is required before making any investment.

And then I literally sign an agreement with my own self, to ensure compliance with our deployment strategy.

One of the checklist items actually requires me to read a 10 page memo I wrote to myself. And the memo has randomized checkpoints, so I can’t just skip through it. This yet again forces me to absorb the true mindset of a top 10% investor.

Here’s a photo of one of the checkpoints within that required reading:

The fence is up, now we just need to stay within its bounds.

Investment Journal

To track all the madness, I have an update feature associated with each company. This lets me journal and track things easily.

Example, there’s multiple categories to select from when journaling, even ‘analysis paralysis’ when I’m overthinking.

Once an update is added, it appears in chronological order within that companies profile.

Allowing me to easily go back and track why I did certain moves, and how I was thinking about deals I hit on, or missed.

Why it matters:

I have a really bad problem where I trade. I will trade the same dollar 10 times during a year sometimes. It’s ridiculous, and not a top investor method. I built this system for myself as a way to harness that excitement into research, and thoughtful analysis of each company. The software forces me to slow down, and forces me to track everything. I’ve only had it live and running a few days without bugs, but already the benefits are clear. The deals I’ve done in the last two days are much cleaner, more thoughtful, and safer in nature than the others. This software enables me to have a repeatable system to underwrite companies, and build a true cash cow over time.

It requires I fundraise more, but fundraising requires I first build a clearly well designed portfolio. So that’s what we’re laser focused on doing.

~Don Stein

Check out the most viral post I ever wrote!:

Leave a comment

“The wise man does at the start what the fool does at the end.”

-Howard Marks, (Second Greatest Investor of All Time)

(full post available here)

Warren Buffett Helped Me Go VIRAL Last Week :)!

Last week I published an article on X with tons of my favorite quotes from Buffett and other iconic investors.

It took me months of collecting (across books, online, interviews)

But actually, months.

So to see….

23,000 views and 98 people who ‘bookmarked’ my article….

….to re-read later, feels good.

We’ve got something even greater today……

But first…

Hey, I’m Don!

I LOVE INVESTING. If you do too, then stop, and subscribe below.

If you hate investing, probably should also subscribe and I’ll teach you to love it ;)

Send this to a friend and they’ll get featured when they subscribe!

Between 2015 until 2025 I networked with 100’s of incredibly cool people, both in person while living in San Francisco, and London, as well as virtually (re-watch our convo’s here).

Now in 2026, I’m building an institutional grade investment fund on top of a fully proprietary AI platform. We’ll be going live to @ThoughtfulCapLP with the fund thesis! (Website launching June 1st).

Thank you for engaging!

The most wise thing anyone responded to me on X with this week, was from @BigIdeasCapital on X

His point was around having survived the pivot from CD’s to Cloud.

He wisely states that the pivot from CD to Cloud is different than Cloud to AI because the prior was more a difference in distribution, whereas the latter is a fundamental difference in product.

That is very smart, and I totally agree. ADBE needs to revamp an entire new product suite with AI.

But, taking it a step further. We see that was founded in 1980’s… and started with printing software. Moving from clunky enterprise printing software to a consumer friendly CD.. now that is as big of a shift as AI.

So I appreciated him commenting and making me go deeper on my thesis.

ALSO → Shoutout Sean, Alex Stetson, Wolfe, Ken MacPherson, and The Polite Investor for showing me tons of love on X this week!

This year, I set the goal to publish a thoughtful blog every Monday.. 52 of them! Don’ Daily is a recap of the entrepreneurship adventures I collect, as well as the new lessons I’m constantly learning from investing.

Engage on X and get featured to our readers!

Read our article on X with a built-in audio AI bot that summarizes it for you!

I’m Traveling Today (again!)

On the road again! Another AirBNB adventure, this time to the East Coast of Florida.

I’m meeting with one of my investors!

(this email will be sent out 48 minutes after that meeting starts!)

So I’m actually in it right now!

It’s been an absolute honor working together over the years, I’m thankful he’s supporting me in this new fund I’m building, and I hope I’m enjoying the coffee.

AI Stock Software

I don’t know if I’ve ever worked this hard on something over a stretch of 7 days.

From Friday night at 10 PM (March 24th), thru May 2nd, I have not stopped.

I haven’t shaved, have barely showered, haven’t been to gym.

I’m eating extremely healthy, like Steve Jobs healthy. Just plain ground turkey and veggies.

Plus my usual eggs and sausage, plus toast, every AM.

So I’m not feeling unhealthy, quite the opposite, I feel like I’m so zoned in, and my fuel tank is full.

I’ve felt like my fuel tank has been full nearly 24/7 since last Friday.

I’ve fallen asleep twice in the past seven nights while coding.

I woke up with Claude sending me a finished build to test, and my dog laying next to me.

Here’s a sneak preview:

If you know Buffett, and you know the Margin of Safety concept (explained below), then you can see what I’m doing.

We’re using AI to re-create Buffett’s investment style :)

Think like Buffett, become Buffett.

~Don

Leave a comment

Great quote.

Let it sink in for a second. The man who helped build one of the greatest investment empires in history is not kicking himself over missed billions or missed headlines. He is kicking himself over missed wisdom. That is the whole game in one sentence.

Get rich slow, and in a way that prevents the risk of losing principle.

The TLDR is brutally simple for making good investments:

Margin of Safety.

Look hard, and say no.

But harder to do so, as most people don’t have the patience to get rich slow.

For investing, the number one thing I want burned into my brain when the market is screaming at me is this: you know nothing. Nobody does. If you ever feel 100 percent sure you are going the right direction, you have already failed the test. That is the discipline.

G.K. Chesterton nailed the feeling better than anyone: “The real trouble with this world of ours is not that it is an unreasonable world, nor even that it is a reasonable one. The commonest kind of trouble is that it is nearly reasonable, but not quite. Life is not an illogicality; yet it is a trap for logicians. It looks just a little more mathematical and regular than it is; its exactitude is obvious, but its inexactitude is hidden; its wildness lies in wait.”

That is the market in a single paragraph. It looks orderly until it bites you.

Nobody knows anything, including me. You know nothing. Nobody does. Everything is an opportunity. Everything is a risk. Everything is both.

True professional investing is not about predicting the future. It is about not losing money while the future unfolds, often in ways that make fools of us all. You go slow. You keep taking in new information. You adjust. You treat every hour like you are driving cross-country with no GPS, no map, and no idea what is around the next bend. You pull over. You ask directions. You listen. Then you drive again until the next thoughtful voice tells you something better.

Howard Marks said it with his usual calm clarity: “We never know where we’re going. But we better know where we are. Find your comfortable speedometer number out of 100, and try to be there as much as possible.”

I am just going to do the simple thing.

Warren Buffett put it even plainer: “Everyone has ideas here and there, usually the simplest is the best.”

David Swensen summed up the entire profession in one line: “Investment success follows most reliably from pursuing value-based strategies.”

The One Rule to Rule Them All

First rule, follow me on X 😀

But no, THERE IS ONLY ONE thing that matters most in investing. It is non-negotiable. Without it you are not an investor. You are a gambler. That thing is margin of safety.

This game will embarrass you right when you start thinking it is easy. Do not celebrate. Ever. The moment you feel too smart, too smooth, too certain, that is the exact moment the market is warming up its biggest punch. It is the calm before the storm. It is the pre-wave before the shock. It lulls you into complacency and then it destroys you.

We’ll dive into all 14 Principles, with extensive quote reference below.

But first…

Hey, I’m Don! I’ve been building career memories for a decade. Over the last three years I’ve been reinvesting my own capital and time back it into my business. All the while learning and growing my net worth via public markets and crypto.

Send this to a friend and they’ll get featured when they subscribe!

Thanks for reading Don’s Daily! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

Over that same period, I also hosted 50+ virtual events with some of the world’s best VC investors and founders for our CEO group. Prior to all that, aside from my first job at Meta, I was lucky enough to raise $10 million in my twenties; doing my best to learn business, investor relations, and the startup mindset all at the same time. Maybe some of you can relate.

Welcome our new Subscribers!

(Cough… Aw… no new subscribers this week.. oh well! I do it for the love of the game.)

This year, I set the goal to publish a thoughtful blog every Monday.. 52 of them! Don’ Daily is a recap of the entrepreneurship adventures I collect, as well as the new lessons I’m constantly learning from doing. My hope is that this entertains, inspires, and influences new creative ideas for you. Every Monday. If you enjoy the blog, please share!

You can share this post or read it on X with a built-in audio AI bot that summarizes it for you!

14 Principles To Keep You In The Game

Here is where the ride gets fun, because these are not dry rules. These are battle-tested, often profane, sometimes hilarious truths from the people who actually survived the market’s worst moods.

Principle 1: Epistemic Humility – You Know Nothing, Stay Nimble

Any arrogant approach of thinking you know what is best for someone else is probably not a great idea.

Shit happens. You are not perfect. Roger Federer only won 54 percent of his points but 80 percent of his matches. The best just show up enough times to put themselves in position for the game-winners. Michael Jordan missed over 9,000 shots but made more than 25 game-winners. You have to get back up, keep grinding. Every 0.1 percent is an edge. You only need a tiny edge over 50/50 odds across a long enough period to become iconic.

Howard Marks was blunt: “Recognize that mistakes are inevitable. The important thing is that the investor recognizes a mistake quickly, accurately diagnoses its cause and does not repeat it.”

Don was even blunter: “Doing more of what works. Doing less of what didn’t work. Don’t sweat it, you fucked up, just start doing more of what works day by day. Write out a schedule of a week, each day doing more of what works. Just force yourself to do it. This is up to you. Nobody can save you.”

Howard Marks broke it down into three classic mistakes investors make. First, thinking you understand what the future holds. Second, assuming the world will stay exactly the way it is right now. Third, letting your emotions drive the bus instead of your checklist.

Peter Bernstein said it like a philosopher: “Essentially, risk says we don’t know what’s going to happen. We walk every moment into the unknown. There’s a range of outcomes, and we don’t know where the actual outcome is going to fall within that range. Often we don’t know what the range is. Aka. We know nothing. Stay nimble.”

Howard Marks again: “Forecasting is not valuable. We don’t know what’s gonna happen, and randomness will play a role.”

Keynes warned about the “dark forces of time and ignorance” that cloud the future and make even the most thoughtful estimates unreliable.

In markets you need two things, Marks said: “a view of what you think is going to happen, and a view on the probability that you are right.”

Charlie Munger’s famous line still stings: “If something is too hard, we move on to something else. What could be simpler than that?”

Stay hyper-aware, but only of things that live in the easy bucket. If it is too hard, hyper-awareness will eat your entire life. Find the things that are not too hard and stay on top of those.

Principle 2: Get Rich SLOW – Do Not Lose Money, Leave Some on the Table

Make money equals raise money.

Jeff Bezos knew the math: long-term wealth always beats fast money.

Warren Buffett was crystal clear: “The philosophy requires patience. Which a lot of people don’t have. People would rather be promised they’ll win a lottery ticket next week than they’re going to get rich slowly. Be long term greedy, not short term greedy.”

Charlie Munger warned: “The desire to get rich fast is pretty dangerous.”

Buffett again: “You only have to do a very few things right in your life so long as you don’t do too many things wrong.”

Munger loved this one: “It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be intelligent.”

If all you ever did was buy high-quality stocks on the 200-week moving average, you would beat the S&P 500 by a large margin over time, Munger said. The problem is almost nobody has that discipline.

This deliberate slowness keeps you from spinning out around the corner you never saw coming.

Charlie Munger called the whole process: “Extreme patience combined with extreme decisiveness. You may call that our investment process. Yes, it’s that simple.”

Warren Buffett: “You have to make very, very few right investing decisions in your life.”

Munger again: “If you’re just not crazy, you have a big advantage over 95 percent of people. If you’re just consistently not crazy, you get a big advantage in life. It’s so simple. Why don’t more people do it?”

Buffett’s punch-card thought experiment is legendary: “Don’t risk what you have and need to get what you don’t have and don’t need. If everyone has a punch card with 20 punches. Each one was a major financial decision in your life. Everyone would be rich because they’d make damn sure those are good bets.”

Munger loved watching Buffett do nothing when there was nothing to do.

At Berkshire they tried to do less, not more. They never thought they could know everything. They just worked hard enough to find a few things where they were right, and that was enough.

Gradualism is a virtue in itself. Substantial uncertainty surrounds the asset allocation process, Graham reminded us.

Charlie Munger in 2018: “In America they call it long attention span. They can keep their mind on a game for a long time until they’ve solved it. The world is full of foolish gamblers and they will not do as well as the patient investor.”

Deciding to make radical changes based on shaky data is just putting too much weight on a shaky foundation.

Buffett again: “If you’ve got 150 IQ and you’re in my business, go sell 20 or 30 points to somebody else because you really don’t need it. You need emotional stability.”

“I’d rather be 100 times cautious than 1 percent too incautious.”

“Don’t swing at every pitch. Wait for yours.”

You should feel like you are moving so slowly that your own mind thinks you are moving too slow.

One of the hardest things in life is for a man to sit in a room and do nothing.

Larry’s version was shorter: Survive and advance.

Principle 3: Value Investing Discipline – Buy Below Fair Value, Then Be Patient

Warren Buffett: “Stocks sell at silly prices from time to time, that’s how I got rich.”

“People behave in extreme ways in markets. Over time, that’s very good for people who keep their heads.”

His greatest lesson: NEVER CHASE. If an exceptional company trades at insane prices, do not buy it. Wait for an exceptional company at a reasonable price. Then go all in. If you cannot find it, wait.

Howard Marks explained the real secret: “How do you make money as an investor? The people who don’t know think the way you do it is by buying good assets. Good building, stock in a good company. Something like that. That is not the secret for success. The secret for success in investing is buying things for less than they’re worth.”

I want to get paid MORE for my risk. Not less.

Buffett on the ideal business: “The ideal business is one that earns very high returns on capital and that keeps using lots of capital at those high returns. That becomes a compounding machine.”

“The single most important decision in evaluating a business is pricing power. If you’ve got the power to raise prices without losing business to a competitor, you’ve got a very good business. And if you have to have a prayer session before raising the price by 10 percent, then you’ve got a terrible business.”

“You can turn a good business into a bad investment if you pay too much for it.”

Common sense is the guiding light. Howard Marks again: “When you buy the S&P 500 at a 23x P/E, your 10-yr annualized return has always fallen between +2 percent and –2 percent, IN EVERY CASE, EVERY CASE!”

Principle 4: Anti-Momentum, Contrarian Behavior – Fish Where the Fish Are

Charlie Munger: “Fish where the fish are. You want to fish where the bargains are. It’s that simple. If the fishing is really lousy where you are, you should probably look for another place to fish. We all do better hunting when we hunt where the hunting is easy.”

Markets move to extremes. High prices for the popular. Low prices for the out-of-favor. That is where the money lives.

Pabrai: “Wall Street gets confused between risk and uncertainty. In fact, when Wall Street gets confused between the two is where the greatest opportunities arise.”

Jeremy Grantham: “Reversion to mean constitutes the most powerful force in financial markets.”

Buffett: “Innovator, then imitator, then idiot.”

Howard Marks: “The wise man does at the start what the fool does at the end.”

Scott Bessent: “The crowd is right 80-85 percent of the time. And that’s the momentum. But it’s when things turn, or you can imagine a different outcome, is when you can really make a lot of money. Most of my big successes have been taking the other side of a weak opinion.”

Larry Ellison: “You have to find errors in unconventional wisdom.”

Ben Horowitz: “Any fact anyone knows has a half life.”

Note to self: You are naturally contrarian, which means you are usually right at the opposite end of the cycle, but you are typically early. So move slowly in action, fast in thought. Maintain a long attention span. Write things down. Believe your gut and hold it.

Charlie Munger on formulas: “If you want a formula, you should go back to graduate school. They will give you lots of formulas that won’t work.”

Warren Buffett: “The stock market is the most obliging, money-making place in the world. Because you don’t have to trade. You can wait for a good deal. It’s a marvelous game. The rules are stacked in your favor.”

The Little Blue Book that Beats the Market described Mr. Market perfectly: On some days he is in a great mood and offers you way too much for your shares. Sell to him. On other days he is depressed and offers to sell you shares for far less than they are worth. Buy from him.

Contrarian behavior is at the heart of success, but human nature craves the safety of the crowd.

Phil Fisher: “Have the moral courage to act against the crowd when your judgment tells you that you are right.”

Declines sow the seeds of future purchases.

Buffett again: “When the price of a stock can be influenced by a herd on Wall Street with prices set at the margins by the most emotional persons, or the greediest, or the most depressed, it is hard to argue that the market always prices rationally. In fact, market prices are frequently nonsensical.”

The attractively priced, out-of-favor strategy beats the highly valued alternative every time.

Most investors feel safe in the mainstream. Only a rare few operate outside it consistently.

Charlie Munger: “A few, rare opportunities will come. You got to learn how to recognize them. Opportunity doesn’t come often, so seize it when it comes.”

In the face of overwhelming consensus, successful contrarians turn a deaf ear.

Establishing the position is only half the battle. The other half is not losing your nerve.

Travis Kalanack: “What separates the successful entrepreneurs from the non-successful ones is pure perseverance.”

Principle 5: Simplicity – Keep It Simple, Never Sell Quality, Most Things Go in the Too-Hard Pile

Charlie Munger: “The big money is not in the buying and the selling, but in the waiting.”

Time does what timing cannot.

Warren Buffett: “The main thing to do is buy into a wonderful business and just sit there with it.”

Warren Buffett and Munger: “We leaned very much towards things where we felt certain to get a decent result, rather than where we were hopeful to get a brilliant result.”

Howard Marks on amateur tennis: “It’s like amateur tennis. It’s about not hitting losers, the winners don’t need to be hit. They just happen if you don’t hit losers. In tennis, if you’re pro you win by hitting winners. If you’re amateur you win by not hitting losers.”

There will always be more to learn than you can truly understand. Do your best turning over every stone you can.

Jensen on Musk: “The first is deletion.” Huang added: “He has the ability to question everything to the point where everything’s down to its minimal amount. Most engineers solve problems by adding. Musk solves them by subtracting. Every part. Every process. Every assumption that survived because no one had the nerve to kill it. He picks it up. Asks if it’s load-bearing. If the answer is anything less than absolutely, it is gone.”

Principle 6: Conviction and Sizing – Stick to Policy, Do Not Sell Quality

A thoughtful portfolio management process ensures funds only accept risks that match the targets and promise enough reward.

KNOW what you own. This becomes critical in downturns. And there will be downturns.

Peter Lynch: “If you can’t explain to an 11-year-old in a minute or less why you own a particular stock, you shouldn’t own it and should just buy a fund instead.”

You did all that work, so trust your gut.

Warren Buffett: “Big opportunities in life have to be seized. You won’t get many of them in your lifetime.”

Stanley Druckenmiller: “It’s not whether you’re right or wrong, it’s how much you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.”

MSFT CEO: “Be bold. But be right.”

David Swensen: “Most portfolios work well with around a half a dozen asset classes, but careful investors define asset classes in terms of risk function.”

“My advantage is not IQ. It’s ‘trigger pulling,’” said Stanley Druckenmiller.

Buffett: “The most extreme mistakes we’ve made are mistakes of omission. It’s the things I knew enough to do; they were within my circle of competence, and I was sucking my thumb.”

Brandon: “Be thoughtful that the things you know aren’t mainstream, and EACH person has a unique cocktail mix of information that stirs their drink. Your information is unique when combined with other unique info, hard earned, and generates an individual perspective. To what degree is the real question? And for how long until it becomes mainstream reality is the second.”

Charlie Munger: “I never allow myself to hold an opinion on anything that I don’t know the other side’s argument better than they do.”

CNBC Guest: “He who knows only his side, his side of the case, knows little of that.”

Charlie Munger: “The goal of investment is to find situations where it is safe not to diversify.”

Recognize that the investment universe contains very few truly outstanding companies, and opportunities to buy them occur very infrequently. Concentrate your attention and funds in the most desirable opportunities.

Charlie Munger: “We tend to go in heavily when a great investment opportunity presents itself. For many, many months, we were buying as much Coca-Cola as we could buy — roughly one-third of the volume trading every day for months. We were very aggressive.”

Buy with gusto when conditions are unfavorable or others misperceive true worth.

Charlie Munger: “Opportunities in life are going to be rare because that’s the nature of the human condition. The best and wisest are only going to get a few big opportunities — and you really have to step up to the pie counter and take a big helping when you get the chance.”

I buy when I know I should but I don’t want to. Much better than buying when I know I shouldn’t but I want to. That is value versus momentum.

“I’m only interested in investing if I have some sort of advantage. Which means I can’t do the conventional things. And if I have an advantage of 3 different things, that’s enough for any family,” Munger said.

Principle 7: Process Over Emotion – Checklists, Memos, Measured Iteration

Fast shortcuts create biases. Sloppy management follows.

Warren Buffett said that in 60 years at Berkshire, only 12 decisions moved the needle. That is one good idea every five years.

Checklists are not optional. They are how you survive.

“Act only after you have collected sufficient information and have thoroughly evaluated a situation,” Phil Fisher said.

Stanley Druckenmiller: “I’ve always loved to play games, and face it, investing is one big game. You need to be decisive, open-minded, flexible and competitive.”

“Don’t be afraid to give up the good to go for the great,” John D. Rockefeller said.

Peter Lynch: “You look dumb in this business. You are terrific in this business if you are right 6.5 times out of 10. That’s a great score. Even if you are right 5 times out of 10, if you own Costco or Walmart or Nvidia that offsets your mistakes.”

Time is the friend of a wonderful business and the enemy of a lousy one.

Pabrai: “Quality over quantity in decision-making. Great investment opportunities are rare. Have your capital working in a reliable compounder like Berkshire, which combines reasonable returns and safety. Meanwhile, scan for more asymmetric opportunities for smaller investors.”

“The best time to buy stocks is when you don’t feel like buying,” Parag Parikh said.

Warren Buffett: “I would still be buying stocks even if World War III broke out.”

Buffett’s checklist is simple: businesses he understands, consistent profits, strong competitive advantages, trustworthy management, fair valuation. Avoid speculation. Focus on long-term value and patience.

Carter’s car story is the perfect framework. A good investment is one where you said no to a lot of offers and looked really hard. A bad investment is one where you did not look hard and said yes in the moment.

Principle 8: Independence and Freedom – Money for Free Time, Not Things

The ultimate success in investing is being able to sleep peacefully, do what you want, and feel relaxed. You need to know why you own something, both at the individual level and the portfolio level.

Warren Buffett: “You really want to go along with the idea that if you’re going to take a trip for 20 years, you wouldn’t feel bad leaving no orders with your broker, and you know when you come back it’s going to be a strong company. If it’s only going to be a great company for 3 years, it ain’t a great company. I think it’s better just to own them. They’re too hard to find. We could attempt to buy and sell, but they’re too hard to find. So to sit there and hope you buy them in the throes of some panic, I’m not sure that will be a great technique. You never get the full benefit of those extremes anyways. I think the main thing to do is find wonderful businesses.”

Waking up with no alarm is a real luxury.

“Like Warren, I had a considerable passion to get rich, not because I wanted Ferraris. I wanted independence. I desperately wanted it,” Charlie Munger said.

Don was honest: “I made money not because I wanted to make money, but because I did not want to work. That’s why I wanted money, freedom from working. Freedom from my weekly community tasks. 100 percent full control over my time. So wanting money didn’t stem from wanting money, it stemmed from a pain in my life that I needed to solve. Wanting 100 percent of MY time to be MY time.”

At the bottom of a bear market you have to drag people to the altar to buy stocks. They will be cheap. That is where they make the most money. Ted Oakley said it best: at those moments you say this company will make X over the next five years, and if you had all the money in the world you would buy the whole company right now.

You have to pick winners and losers. Once you pick the winner you are okay.

Principle 9: FOMO versus FOME – Fear of Moving Early, Patience Over Impulsiveness

Have to be okay with missing things and sticking to policy. Dad said: “If you never own a CRM, then you never own a CRM, what can I tell ya. Like in real estate, don’t fall in love with your work. Don’t say to yourself ‘I did all this work on CRM, blah blah, but it isn’t hitting my price, I’ve got to make things happen.’ You can’t get sucked in. If you don’t buy it, or buy a little, and it goes up then oh well. There are 5K stocks, you’re looking at them every day, you’re finding them.”

Are we leaning risk on or risk off right now?

Warren Buffett: “I did miss the boat on tech stocks, but I don’t mind missing boats that I don’t know enough to captain. I don’t have to understand everything. I just have to be right about the things that I do.”

FOMO disappears when you remove time as a factor and make it infinite. There is plenty of time. Warren Buffett missed tech and still made 100 billion on Apple.

Have to be okay missing stuff and sticking to policy.

Principle 10: Momentum is a Feature – Be Prepared for Sudden Endings

Richard Bookstaber: “The general rule of thumb is that every financial market experiences one or more daily price moves of four standard deviations or more each year. And in any year, there is usually at least one market that has a daily move that is greater than ten standard deviations.”

Howard Marks: “96 percent of financial history has occurred over 2 standard deviations. But everything interesting has happened outside of 2 standard deviations.”

Since 1950 the average drawdown in the S&P 500 has been 14 percent in a calendar year. Drawdowns of at least 10 percent happened in 37 of the past 75 years. 20 percent plus corrections happened in 11 of those years. 30 percent plus in 4. You get one or two big opportunities per decade. You never know when they are coming. That is when the big money is made. The greatest opportunity is always at the depths of uncertainty.

Becky said the markets just had a significant decline. Buffett replied: “Not significant. I’m not in this to make 5 percent.”

Peter Lynch: “What you learn from history is that the market goes down. The market has had 50 declines of 10 percent or more, about once every two years, the market falls 10 percent. We call that a correction. Of those 50 declines, 15 have been 20 percent or more, a bear market. So every 6 years the markets are going to have a 20 percent decline. If you’re not ready for that, you shouldn’t own stocks. It’s good when that happens. And, no one knows when they’re going to happen. Take advantage of the volatility if you understand what you own. You have plenty of time. People are in an unbelievable rush to buy a stock.”

“We can’t always buy the stocks that go up. I wish we could. But obviously we can’t know. And the stocks that go up also go down. And they can go down ferociously, violently. And that’s a feature of stocks. Not a bug,” Chris Mayer said.

If an investor avoids the flavor of the month over and over but eventually gives in, it is usually at the exact peak of hype. That is when returns are minimal.

“Stocks are SAFE for the long run and very unsafe for tomorrow,” Warren Buffett said.

“The stock market will do whatever it has to do to embarrass the greatest number of people to the great extent possible,” Walter Deemer said. That is Deemer’s Law of Perversity.

Why did I lose? I sold too late. Or I sold quality and bought hype. You should be holding quality and selling hype on tight stop losses.

Principle 11: Circle of Competence – Only Act When You Have a Confirmed Edge

All intelligent people think primarily in terms of opportunity costs. Compare what you are doing with the best opportunity you have.

Since investing is fucking hard, look for the simple opportunities where you have a unique advantage.

Warren Buffett: “Peter Lynch has always said, ‘Buy a business that’s so good that any idiot can run it—because, sooner or later, one will.’ Well, we would like to buy a business like that and then we’d like a terrific guy running it.”

“The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘This time it’s different,’” Sir John Templeton said.

Warren Buffett: “The goal is to own the best businesses in the world, and I want to own them for a very long time.”

Principle 12: Rebalancing and Portfolio Construction – Lean Against the Wind, Sell Winners to Buy Losers

Rebalancing is supremely rational. It forces you to sell what has done well to buy what has done poorly.

Once it goes in the portfolio, it goes in. You can put most of your assets in the fund and check back in 5 to 10 years. 50 to 60 names. Average name only 2 percent. Start new names at 1 percent. Add as confidence grows. Stop adding around 3 percent. Market appreciation does the rest. That was Bill Nygren.

You HAVE to be willing to leave money on the table. Leaving money on the table is a safely leveraged way to manage risk.

Disciplined investors use rebalancing to maintain targets, selling strength to buy weakness. David Swensen.

Beyond about 30 well-chosen stocks, diversification benefits plateau. Warren Buffett: “Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing.”

“Buy a stock the way you would buy a house. Understand and like it such that you’d be content to own it in the absence of any market,” Buffett said.

Your portfolio should have an appropriate number of assets. Small enough that commitments matter. Large enough that no single commitment matters too much.

What is rebalancing? It is the mechanism that keeps your risk level where you want it.

What is my rebalancing strategy? Equities versus cash. Warren Buffett in 1999: “You know that valuations are high by historic standards, you know that the level of speculation is high by any historic standard, and you know that that doesn’t go on forever. But you don’t know when it ends.”

Gosh I would love a 15 percent pullback. If there is ever a time when that statement is not true, you are probably over-invested or over-indexed.

Principle 13: Attention, Curiosity and Learning – Reading Is an Edge, Always Be Studying

Warren Buffett and Jamie Dimon read all day every morning. Being passionate enough to study, research, and read is a gift. Lean into curiosity.

Phil Fisher: “Read everything you can.”

Warren Buffett: “I have mainly learned by reading. I don’t think I have any original ideas. If you learn reasonably well from other people, you don’t have to get any new ideas or do much on your own. You can just apply the best of what you see.”

Buffett again: “I knew all the details of all these little companies that Charlie thought I’d never have heard of. I would find the equivalent of Moody’s manual, and I’d try to know everything about everything small. I would find something, and with $1M you could earn 50 percent per year. You need to be in love with the subject, not just in love with the money. People are successful in stocks because they just love looking for them. There’s certain people who just find it exciting to expand their knowledge in a given area. The human brain is complicated, but it does its best when you find out what your brain is really suited for.”

Carl Icahn: “But for people that make a lot of money, at least in business, or in any area, I think, the common denominator is an obsession, that they really are obsessed.”

Phil Knight: “Oneness – in some way, shape or form, it’s what every person I’ve ever met has been seeking.”

Brandon: “What might I have learned from paper trading? The feeling of missing out comes not from selling and losing money, but from not seeing an investment thesis or methodology through to the end, and then not knowing if it would’ve been bad or good, or apparently great.”

Principle 14: Art and Science, Subjective and Objective – Align Deep Research with Gut, Mind, and Vision

At the essence of investing is measured iteration. If you cannot analyze, you cannot understand.

If you can overthink the worst, why can’t you overthink the best?

Listen to the universe, not the markets. Before your two most frustrating down days, the red bird flew to you. You didn’t listen either time.

Big brain times little money times lot of time times exceptional insights.

Don: “IT CAN NEVER HURT TO REFLECT!”

A Thoughtful Ending

Benjamin Graham: “The ideal investment is one in which the future earnings are reasonably assured by established competitive position.”

When you are becoming a Buffett, you invest like Buffett. When you invest like Buffett, you are becoming Buffett.

Compound: 15 percent annualized is closer to 1/20th of a percent, 0.05 percent, each market day. Not half a percent. Half a percent daily would be enormous.

Enjoy life. And do not stop compounding once you start winning.

That is the whole ride. Uncomfortable. Unpredictable. Unapologetically slow. But if you can stay on it, the view at the end is worth every single awkward moment along the way.

Disclaimer: This is a note I’m writing to myself, I do this to help me think through MY OWN investment decisions. You should not take any of this as advice for your own investments, each investor is different, and each situation requires different risk appetite. YOU MUST DO YOUR OWN DILLIGENCE. I’m happy to discuss how you’re thinking about this, just leave a comment, or DM me on X.

Analysis Preview:

Personal Valuation Targets

Context:

Falling Knife? Or, Fallen Angel?

The AI narrative of AI Design tools x Job Displacement is causing investors to fear Adobe is losing pricing power, and will also lose their customer growth/retention advantages. The stock technicals make you think this is a falling knife. The business fundamentals make you think this is a fallen angel.

THESIS:

I think this is a Fallen Angel.

Adobe turns retained earnings into more growth, leading to a compounding flywheel. I feel they will retain leadership in an AI world, they’ll charge on a usage basis in addition to a per seat basis, and the macro narrative around AI design and AI job displacement will become tailwinds at some point.

Business Fundamentals + Valuation Overview:

Adobe halved its top line growth rate in 2022 from 20% to 10% and never recovered, but it stabilized its NI margin around 25% (actually closer to 30% on clean quarters) and continues to still grow revenue consistently at ~10%.

Real numbers (TTM through Feb 2026):

• Revenue $24.45B

• Net Income $7.21B (NI Margin ~29.5%)

• Market Cap ~$99B, P/E 14.25

Applying 10% revenue growth: new revenue $26.9B, new NI at 29.5% margin = $7.93B, market cap at same 14.25 PE = $113B. That’s a 14.1% return — below the 15% goal, but after a 33% handicap, still ~10%. In the worst case, Adobe could reduce compounding from 15% to 5% and still deliver treasury-like returns.

Rating: 6/10

The Core “Not-Stupid” Argument (7/10)

Buying Adobe is stupid because we can’t predict the future with AI, but every risk is an opportunity. Adobe isn’t going anywhere any time soon. It’s historically out-of-favor at a 15 P/E and 10x OCF/E, and the stock is back to its 2019 price. Do I really think AI is going to impact this so negatively that it’s now in a worse position than it was pre-COVID? No chance.

The “not-stupid” move is delegating a small amount into Adobe and tracking to confirm the thesis doesn’t get proven untrue. If we’re here in 18 months and Adobe has an AI Firefly product with $B’s of recurring revenue and they’re the leading AI design platform, I would have no problem believing that.

I could be very wrong, but at this discount, passing on this opportunity is a mistake, and going in too big too soon is a mistake. So let’s scale in. I believe this is a total winner despite CEO and AI headwinds.

Is This a Great Business? (9/10)

Yes. Founded in 1982, this company had the foresight to build software for printing and digital publishing. They’ve been through the ringer — desktop to CDs, to the cloud pivot, and from one-off to subscription model (now doing almost $25B in ARR, growing 10%). Tech companies evolve; that’s what they do.

Adobe grew its AI-related revenue 3x YoY and will launch a new “pay per usage” payment model. Frankly, I love it — it’s going to make the price for AI design cheaper and the ecosystem stickier. Adobe has so much going for it across both customer segments.

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Revenue Quality (8/10)

Every single metric is going up and to the right:

• Revenue grew 12% last quarter

• 850 million MAUs, growing 17%

• ARR at $25.2B, growing 11.5%

• RPO at $22.5B, growing 13%

• AI-first ARR more than tripled YoY

• Gross margins still 88%

• FCF still $10B+

• 90% of revenue is recurring

What more can I say?

Moat (7/10)

This is taught in University, it’s built a brand over decades, it’s the go-to for professional designers.

Adobe is still growing 10% on a $20B+ top line — show me where AI is eating this business. There is zero evidence in the financials. Not in churn, not in revenue growth, not in ARR adds, not in user counts.

You’re paying 10x free cash flow for a business still compounding revenue in double digits, with 88% gross margins, on a predominantly recurring subscription base with low churn. That is not a value trap. That is not a declining business. That is a growing cash flow machine being priced like something is broken.

The market has taken a business growing 12% with 88% margins and priced it at 10x FCF because of a vibes-based thesis. And sure, some things are broken — but it’s not AI sensitivity, it’s management. And they’re getting a new CEO.

The three key risks to mitigate:

1. They select a shitty CEO

2. AI absolutely destroys design

3. The stock price doesn’t recover for years and they just keep burning cash on buybacks

The wild thing: Adobe was at $688 eighteen months ago. If you told someone in late 2021 they’d be able to buy this business at $244 while revenue nearly doubled from $16B to $24B, they’d think you were insane. The business has gotten meaningfully better while the stock has gotten 65% cheaper.

Small buy to begin, bigger buy if they bring in the right leadership. AI is a risk, but I contrarily think it’s more of an opportunity.

Current Price Thoughts (7/10)

Would I pay $100B for Adobe?

~$24B in revenue growing 10-11%. ~$10B in annual operating cash flow. ~88% gross margins. Dominant market position in creative tools. $25B in ARR deeply embedded in enterprise and professional workflows. ~850 million monthly active users.

This $244 stock price is historically low. It has historically not stayed at sub-15 PE very long — this is usually the low point.

Q1 FY2026 numbers: $3.04B in Operating Income (12% YoY increase), roughly $2.92B in FCF for the single quarter. Annualized, that’s an $11.6B+ FCF run rate for 2026.

Current valuation metrics: Under 14 PE. EV/Sales = 4x. 10x P/FCF. Growing revenue 10%. Growing EPS diluted 12%+. P/S is 4x — usually closer to 10x.

Capital allocation concerns: They spent $32B over four years on buybacks. At today’s stock price that money could have retired ~131 million shares instead of however many they actually got at inflated prices. Or it could be sitting as cash, making Adobe one of the most financially impregnable software companies on earth. Instead, equity has been hollowed out, working capital is negative, and the stock is down 65% from the highs they were buying at. The board authorized a $25B buyback program through March 2028 and has already completed $14.9B — burning through 60% of a four-year authorization three years early.

The CEO grew his comp 40% because it’s tied to EPS — so his comp went way up, shareholders went way down. Get this guy out of there.

Revenue visibility: RPO is $22B+ (65-68% current), giving strong visibility into contracted revenue over 24-26 months. Unearned revenues grew from $2B to $7B over the decade as multi-year contracts landed.

Supply & Demand Dynamics (6/10)

Design could become more commoditized — more slop means less value per design. But you can’t decrease the value of “good design.” Good design is good design.

If AI evolves from slop to good AI design, that increases supply of tools but should also increase demand for those tools. Products will likely become more specialized (like Suno with music, Canva with design).

Segment breakout (FY2025):

• Creative & Marketing Professionals: $16.3B

• Business Professionals & Consumers: $6.5B (growing 16% YoY to $1.8B in biz tools, marketing segment growing 12% to $4.8B)

Yellow flag: They just started breaking out segments into two clean buckets. I think they’re bunching stuff to cover up slow growth in the pro design segment. The underlying math isn’t as clean as the titles suggest.

Competitive Landscape & Peers (8/10)

Probably by far the best company out of the bunch, and one of the best values too.

• Figma — massively unprofitable, barely profitable on OCF basis, 50x multiple

• Canva (private) — $4B ARR at $42B valuation. Adobe has 8x the ARR and only 2x the valuation. Canva isn’t stealing Adobe’s core professional user — it’s serving the SMB marketing manager who was never going to buy Creative Cloud. Different market.

• Autodesk — less than half the revenue but more than half the valuation. Better growth, legit business doing real net income. 50x PE but 25x OCF/E.

• DocuSign — below 10x OCF/E and unearned revenue growing (4x equity). But PE is 25x because nearly 20% of revenue is SBC. Versus Adobe at ~8% SBC/revenue. (Cloud software average is 21%.)

• Midjourney — $500M revenue is impressive for 200 employees, but it’s a prompt-based image generator. It doesn’t do video editing, PDF workflows, vector illustration, motion graphics, layout design, photo retouching, or any of the hundred other things Adobe’s suite does.

  Get our upcoming reads on ADP and DAVE:

Management (6/10)

Hope they select David Wadhwani as CEO — he’s excellent. Not happy with how much money previous management blew on buybacks. Adobe should have way bigger hitter power players on the board, on par with ADP’s.

Lara (CMO) is solid — proven track record at Amazon (Worldwide Prime), Visa (NA Marketing), Nike, and Intuit.

Board & CEO Search (7/10)

Calderoni leading the CEO search. He was CFO of Red Hat, sits on boards of PANW and Adobe. Silicon Valley native.

Internal Candidates

#1 David Wadhwani (leading candidate) — Currently President of Digital Media, public face of Adobe’s AI integration strategy. Worked at Adobe 2005-2015, left to be CEO of AppDynamics within Cisco, Venture Partner at Greylock, then rejoined Adobe 2 years ago as CBO. CS degree from Brown. This dude is IMPRESSIVE.

#2 Anil Chakravarthy — Successfully ran Informatica as CEO (2015-2020), pivoting to cloud-first subscription model. Hit $1B+ recurring revenue. Laid groundwork for Informatica’s re-IPO in 2021 and eventual Salesforce acquisition.

External Wild Card

Jim Whitehurst — The phone call Calderoni makes first. Calderoni was Whitehurst’s CFO at Red Hat (2015-2017). Currently MD at Silver Lake, Executive Chair at Unity Technologies, chairs Qualtrics board. Scaled Red Hat from niche open-source to first multi-billion dollar open-source firm and orchestrated $34B sale to IBM. Executive Chairman at Unity gives him direct creative software experience. Seen as a turnaround specialist — exactly what Adobe’s stock chart is begging for.

Low probability, but the fact that Calderoni leads the search, Whitehurst is at Silver Lake, and Adobe’s stock is at 5-year lows creates a once-in-a-decade alignment of people, price, and positioning. Calderoni is essentially a Silver Lake alumni (CEO of Anaplan, which Silver Lake took private for $10.7B).

Wild thought: The smartest thing would be for someone to take Adobe private — cut the pointless spending, let cash flow pay off debt, own a nice asset forever. ~$13B/year in cash available for debt paydown if you add FCF plus remove buybacks.

Company Gravity (7/10)

It’s THE brand. Market leader. Iconic tech company with decades of proven sustainability. The new CEO will be extremely tell-tale — it’ll show how much gravitational pull this company truly has. If they get a winner, excellent. If they select David, also great — he returned for his second term after 10 years away. The company’s gravity did prove to draw him back in.

Margin of Safety (8/10)

The margin of safety comes from current valuations vs historical norms:

• Average PE over last 17 quarters: 35x

• Average PE over last 4 quarters: 24x

• Current PE: ~15x

If it reverts to longer-term mean → ~100% margin. If it reverts to shorter-term mean → ~66% margin.

The business is not declining — growing revenue 10% with ~30% margins. So the PE shrinks over time naturally as earnings grow.

Based on historical norms, this is the best opportunity window in a decade. But it could be a value trap.

Ego Handicap (6/10)

IMPORTANT: This fundamentally rests on the bet against the AI job displacement trend. I don’t buy it — I think businesses will always need people. If design really does change that much, Adobe will be at the forefront. So either the AI displacement thesis is overhyped and Adobe is fine, or the AI design trend is so important that Adobe naturally will be there leading it. If this fundamental claim is wrong, almost none of my other work matters.

I definitely don’t know all I could. Been studying for 1-2 months. The price is getting close to irresistible. But I barely understand their full revenue mix, have many products to learn, and I’m only guessing at the next CEO. There are blind spots I’m not aware of.

Scenarios & Handicap (6/10)

Bull: Adobe becomes the leading AI design player through acquiring, building, and integrating. Reverts to favorable sentiment and re-rates to 25x PE. We retrace the 50%+ margin of safety back to average.

Base: Grows revenue 10%, keeps NI margin above 25%, finds strong but not iconic CEO, continues shifting focus onto AI design tools. Hovers around 15-20 PE.

Bear: AI tools and decreasing seat count accelerate. Customers start reducing purchase size and find other preferred tools, driving Adobe’s pricing power lower. Unbundling mess that never gets above 15 PE — meaning we purchased right when there was no hope left.

Bear Case (7/10)

• They select a shitty CEO

• AI absolutely destroys design

• The stock price doesn’t recover for years and they just keep burning cash on buybacks

Forward Earnings Projection

Assuming 10% YoY revenue growth, ~27% NI margin (conservative), 15 PE:

Baseline: stays here for 3 years. Optimistic: AI story becomes tailwind, growth accelerates. Pessimistic: revenue stays similar but re-rating gets increasingly negative toward 10 PE.

Recent Results vs 6 Months Ago (8/10)

Numbers all grew. Market cap decreased. AI threat isn’t showing any dent in their growth yet — moving toward an all-clear personally, but definitely not there. Tread cautiously.

The price went down, the business went up.

• 52-week high: $422.95 (May 2025)

• Six months ago (Oct 2025): ~$380-400 range, ~$160-170B market cap

• Current (Apr 2026): $98.8B market cap — down 39.5% in one year while revenue grew

Next 6 Months Risk/Reward (9/10)

YES — when they select a new CEO, that one decision will be critical for the next 1-10 years, potentially more.

Technicals (6/10)

The stock never recovered from 2022. About as ugly a sustained downtrend as you can imagine since the Dec 2021 ATH.

Last time the stochastic was this low on a 5-year chart (2022), it went on to grow 2-3x over 2 years. The 2022 downtrend stopped almost exactly on the long-term moving average. The current downtrend just hit and stopped on the next MA below. If this MA acts as a floor → bullish. If it acts as a roof → we’re going down further.

Over the 3-month short term, we’re below every single MA. On a 10-year chart, this thing has fallen off a cliff.

The technicals make you think this is a falling knife. The fundamentals make you think this is a fallen angel.

Narrative (4/10)

The narrative is very against it. The macro narrative around AI design and AI job displacement are both headwinds. Firefly is going for it but unlikely to be material anytime soon.

Near-Term Outlook

• 1 day: Probably down

• 1 week: Adobe conference upcoming — doubtful they unveil anything material in AI

• 1 month: Lack of AI innovation at conference + Claude Design overhype could push this down more through April/May

• 1 year: Doesn’t report next earnings until June

Position Management

Initial buy: 0.4% allocation

Scaling triggers:

• Need to know the NEW CEO

• Need to see JUNE EARNINGS

• Need to see if anything important happens at ADOBE CONNECT CONFERENCE

• Need to monitor usefulness of AI design tools

Sell triggers:

• Job growth turns and sustains negative

• AI eats all of design — can just chat with an AI designer instead of needing Adobe

• Entire market moves away from Adobe — customers leaving, decreasing spend

• New CEO isn’t someone I believe in (vetted, not just taste)

• Debatable but realistic: CEO search drags on for a year, company goes sideways, gets forgotten

Stop loss: No

AI”s BEAR CASE + My Rebuttal:

“I’ve read your full memo. You’ve done serious work. But here are the holes I’d rip into if I were sitting across from you trying to talk you out of this.”

Hole 1: Your “no evidence AI is eating this business” claim has a shelf life — and it might already be expiring.

You say “show me where AI is eating this business.” Fair — the financials look clean today. But that’s exactly how disruption works. Kodak’s revenue grew 5% the year before the cliff. Blackberry grew revenue 36% in fiscal 2011. The financials are the last thing to break. What breaks first is mindshare, new customer acquisition, and the talent pipeline choosing to build on other platforms.

Here’s what you should actually be scared of: Adobe’s user growth (850M MAUs growing 17%) is increasingly driven by Express and Acrobat — the low-end, document-side products. The professional creative core (Photoshop, Premiere, After Effects, Illustrator) isn’t being disaggregated in reporting anymore. They restructured segments this year into “Creative & Marketing Professionals” and “Business Professionals & Consumers.” You flagged this yourself as a yellow flag. You’re right to be suspicious. When companies stop breaking out their legacy core, it’s usually because the core is decelerating and they want to blend it with something faster-growing.

IF IT DOES DECLINE AND SLOW, WE’LL KNOW, AND WE’LL NEED TO SELL. BUT AS OF TODAY, THE REWARD IS GREATER WITH CONTRARIANS ON THIS ONE.

Hole 2: You’re buying the buyback damage, not avoiding it.

You correctly identify that management destroyed value — $32B in buybacks at inflated prices, negative equity, negative working capital. But you’re treating this as a past mistake that a new CEO will fix. The problem is the damage is already done and it’s structural. Adobe hollowed out its balance sheet. If the stock stays flat or declines further for 2-3 more years, they have fewer financial levers to pull than any of their peers. No war chest for transformative acquisitions. No cushion if there’s a downturn. You said yourself — if they’d kept that $32B as cash, they’d be “one of the most financially impregnable software companies on earth.” They didn’t. You’re buying the weakened version.

A new CEO inherits a company with negative tangible equity, $12B in goodwill, and a board that just authorized another $25B in buybacks. What if the new CEO is pressured to keep buying back stock instead of investing in AI? That authorization is a signal of board intent, not just an option.

TRUE, BUT THERE’S A WORLD WHERE THIS RETURNS TO 500/SHARE IN A COUPLE YEARS, AND NOW THOSE BUYBACK PRICES WERE SMART.

Hole 3: The 10x FCF is misleading because FCF includes SBC.

You keep anchoring on “10x free cash flow.” But Adobe’s reported FCF includes ~$2B of stock-based compensation flowing through as a non-cash add-back. You even note this — “removing that from OCF it’s $8B, about a 13x multiple.” So the real FCF multiple is 13x, not 10x. Still cheap historically, but not the screaming bargain you keep framing it as. And 13x for a company growing 10% with a CEO departure, AI uncertainty, and negative equity is... honestly pretty rational.

13X IS STILL INCREDIBLE FOR ADOBE. IT’S BEEN ABOVE A 20 ALL DECADE LONG PRIOR TO THIS.

Hole 4: Your “contrarian” bet isn’t actually contrarian — it’s consensus.

You say “no other investors seem to agree with me.” But 83% of Adobe is owned by institutions. Vanguard, BlackRock, State Street — they haven’t sold. The stock is down because multiple compression happened across all software, not because smart money abandoned Adobe specifically. You’re not buying something the market forgot about. You’re buying something the market has deliberately re-rated because the forward outlook changed. Every single sell-side analyst can run the same “15 PE on $7B earnings” math you can. They’re choosing not to pay that multiple. Maybe they know something you don’t about the next 3 years of seat-based pricing erosion.

THOSE FUNDS INDEX, THIS IS CONTRARIAN VS THE MARKET AS THEY REPRICED ADOBE, MY THESIS BELIEVES THEY SHOULDN’T HAVE BEEN RERATED DOWN SO MUCH ON MULTIPLES.

FUNDAMENTALLY, I BELIEVE AI ENHANCES CREATIVITY. IT’S A TOOL TO UNLOCK IT, MAKE IT FASTER, CREATE MORE EFFICIENT. JUST LIKE SUNO AND MUSIC.

“Creative Cloud has reached an estimated 41 million subscribers, nearly double the number from five years ago, up 4.24 million from last year. The ProDesignTools run rate is over 1 million new subscriptions per quarter — adding roughly 11,600 net new paid members every day.

That trajectory: 22M (2021) → 26M (2022) → 30M (2024) → 33M (mid-2025) → 41M (end of 2025). Seats are growing. Not stalling. Not declining. Growing 2-4M per year consistently.

But here’s the problem with that number: Adobe has never broken out professional Creative Cloud seats vs. Express/Firefly/Acrobat-bundled seats. That 41M almost certainly includes a ton of low-ARPU users on cheaper plans. The $15/month Express subscriber and the $55/month All Apps subscriber both count as “1 seat.””

THIS IS TRUE, BUT ALSO THE MARKET FOR $15 IS WAY LARGER, WAY MORE SEATS UP FOR GRABS IN AN AI WORLD AS MORE PEOPLE START SMALL BIZ.

The numbers are staggering:

5.62 million new business applications were filed in 2025, and so far in 2026 applications are up 25.54% compared to the same period last year. Finder

Pre-pandemic baseline was ~3.5M/year. We’re running at 5.5M+. That represents a 47.8% increase from 2019. Commerce Institute

So roughly 2 million MORE businesses per year are being formed now versus pre-COVID. Every single year. And it’s accelerating.

Now think about what every new business needs on Day 1:

A logo. A website. Business cards. Social media templates. A PDF contract. An invoice. Marketing materials. A pitch deck. Product photos edited. A brand guide.

Every single one of those tasks touches an Adobe product — or a competitor to an Adobe product. The point is, the TAM for design tools isn’t shrinking. It’s exploding.

–

Hole 5: The CEO catalyst is a coin flip, and you’re pricing in the upside without the downside.

You rate the board a 7, but your entire thesis hinges on who gets picked. You’ve built an elaborate narrative around Whitehurst and Silver Lake — but your own memo says this is “low probability.” If they pick Wadhwani (which the reporting suggests they already have), you get continuity. Continuity is fine, but it’s not a catalyst. The stock doesn’t re-rate on “same strategy, different face.” And if the search drags on — which you flag as a realistic scenario — you’re sitting in dead money for 6-12 months while the AI narrative gets worse.

LOOKING AT THIS ON A RELATIVE BASIS, THE NEXT CEO CAN’T BE WORSE THAN MISPRICED BUYBACKS! SO SURE, WE COULD STAY THE SAME, IN WHICH CASE I STILL THINK ADOBE RERATES BC AI HELPS CREATIVITY. AND A SMALL % CASE HE’S WORSE, BUT PROBABLY WILL JUST BE THE SAME. AND SOME % HE’S BETTER.

Hole 6: The Canva/Midjourney comparison cuts the wrong way.

You dismiss Canva by saying “a marketing coordinator making Instagram posts was never an Adobe customer.” But that’s the entire point. The TAM for “design” is exploding because of these tools, and none of that growth is flowing to Adobe.Adobe’s addressable market is getting bigger, and they’re capturing zero of the incremental demand. That’s not a sign of moat strength — it’s a sign of product-market drift. The professional designer market is mature and saturated. The growth is all in democratized design, and Adobe is losing that war despite having a 40-year head start.

REAL RISK VS CANVA. What to demand from Adobe in June earnings: BPC segment growth rate. If it accelerates from 15% toward 20%.

BUT, THIS IS A VALUATION BET. IF CANVA IS VALUED AT 45B, ADOBE 100B, YET ADOBE DOING 20B REV SO 5X SALES, AND CANVA 11X SALES ON 4B REV, MAKING ADOBE MORE SAFE, BUT MAKING CANVA A GROWTH PLAY. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A 1-3 YEAR PERIOD WHERE ADOBE CAN COUNTER THIS. THEY NEED EXPRESS TO BE BANGING, AND WHEN I LAST TESTED, IT WASN’T. SO I’M REALLY NOT SURE OTHER THAN YOU TAKE THE BIRD IN THE HAND WITH 20B REV INSTEAD OF THE BIRD IN THE BUSH WITH 4B BUT GROWING TOPLINE MORE.

Hole 7: Your revenue growth math doesn’t account for the pricing lever running dry.

Adobe has been raising prices steadily. Creative Cloud went from $50/month to $60/month. They just introduced “Pro” tiers at higher price points. A meaningful chunk of that 10-11% revenue growth is price, not volume. At some point — especially with cheaper AI alternatives emerging — the pricing lever snaps. If you strip out price increases, organic unit/seat growth might be mid-single digits. That’s a very different business than the one you’re modeling.

I THINK ADOBE NEEDS TO SHIFT TO A USAGE BASED PRICING MODEL. THAT IS CLEARLY THE MODEL OF THE NEXT GENERATION.

FIREFLY WILL CANNIBALIZE THE BIZ. THAT’S WHAT IS NECESSARY. THAT IS THE BET.

THE EVIDENCE IT’S HAPPENING:

1. Credit consumption is exploding. Credit consumption grew over 45% quarter over quarter in Q1 2026. Adobe In Q4 FY2025, credit consumption increased 3x quarter over quarter. Adobe So back-to-back quarters of massive acceleration.

2. Higher-value usage is skewing up. Video generative actions grew more than 8x year over year and audio generative actions doubled year over year. Adobe These are premium credit actions — they burn more credits per use, which drives the consumption-to-upgrade flywheel.

3. The pricing architecture already exists. Firefly Standard is $9.99/month (2,000 credits), Pro is $19.99/month (4,000 credits), Premium is $199.99/month (50,000 credits). Saas CRM Review They’ve built a tiered credit system that’s genuinely usage-based. The more you generate, the more you pay.

4. Enterprise is on credits too. 1,770+ enterprise customers are already entitled to use AI agents through a new credit-based pricing model. MarTech And as subscribers consume more generative credits, they have the choice of moving to higher-value Creative Cloud offerings or acquiring Firefly Credit Add-ons. Adobe

5. Management is explicitly framing the growth algorithm around consumption. The strategy is “drive MAU, drive credit consumption, drive enterprise usage.” The Globe and Mail As usage increases, higher-resolution and denser outputs consume more credits, nudging users toward premium tiers and add-ons. This usage-to-upgrade pattern provides a durable path to ARPU expansion. Futurum Group

6. They’re embedding into LLM surfaces as consumption endpoints. They’re atomizing Photoshop, Express, and Acrobat capabilities as MCP endpoints, providing imaging, video, and productivity functionality in ChatGPT, Copilot and other conversational platforms. Adobe That’s pure consumption-based — every API call from ChatGPT burns credits.

—

Hole 8: You rate this a 7 confidence but you’re allocating 0.4%.

Your allocation tells me your actual confidence is lower than your stated confidence. A 7/10 confidence on a stock at a “decade-best opportunity window” with 50%+ margin of safety should command way more than 0.4%. The fact that you won’t put more in means your gut is telling you something your spreadsheet isn’t. Listen to your gut. Either this is the conviction buy you think it is and you should be at 2-3%, or it’s the speculative watch-and-wait that your allocation implies — in which case, why not just wait for the CEO announcement and June earnings before committing any capital?

I’VE INVESTED 1% ON INITIAL BET. I’M GOING TO TRY TO GET IT TO 1.5%. I’M SCARED, BUT I FEEL THIS IS THE RIGHT THING TO DO. KEEP IT BELOW 2%, BE OKAY WITH A 20% DECLINE WHICH TAKES 1.5 TO 1.2.

Hole 9: You haven’t modeled the actual bear case.

Your bear case is vague: “AI absolutely destroys design.” But what does that actually look like in the financials? Model it. What if net new ARR additions decelerate from 11% to 5% over 2 years? What if churn ticks up from ~8% to 12%? What if the pricing power evaporates and ARPU goes flat? At 5% revenue growth with 25% NI margins and a 12 PE, you’re looking at a $75B market cap — another 20% downside from here. Is your 0.4% position sized for that? Because “AI destroys design” isn’t binary. The slow erosion scenario — death by a thousand cuts over 5 years — is actually the more likely bear case, and it’s much harder to detect in time to sell.

THIS IS BINARY. THE BEAR CASE IS THE BEAR CASE, IT’S BAD. WE LOSE 20-40% OF OUR 1.5% INVESTMENT, BUT STILL MAINTAIN FUND HEALTH. IT’S A BET.

Hole 10: The one you should be most scared of.

You wrote: “this fundamentally rests on the bet against trend (AI job displacement).” Then you immediately reassure yourself that you don’t buy it. But you don’t have edge on this question. Nobody does. You’re making a macro call about AI’s impact on professional creative work — one of the hardest predictions in technology right now — and treating it as a given in your thesis. If you’re wrong about this single assumption, everything else is noise. Your moat analysis, your FCF math, your CEO speculation — none of it matters if AI makes a $20/month tool that replaces 60% of what Photoshop does for 80% of users. And you can’t put a probability on that. You said so yourself: “I definitely don’t know all I could.”

I’M NOT SAYING I’M RIGHT. I’M SAYING THE EDGE RESULTS FROM THE VALUATION. PEOPLE ARE CONFIDENTLY SAYING ADOBE IS LEFT FOR DEAD AT THIS 15 PE PRICE. IT’S LOWER PE THAN DAVE, THAN ADP, ETC.. YET IT’S A STRONG BIZ. WITH REAL POTENTIAL IN AI, AND SMART PRICING TO MATCH THE FUTURE. I COULD BE WRONG, BUT SO COULD THE CROWD, ALL I KNOW IS IF THEY’RE RIGHT THEY WON’T MAKE MONEY, IF WE’RE RIGHT, WE WILL.

The bottom line question I’d ask you: if this exact business — same revenue, same margins, same growth — were a private company you’d never heard of, and someone offered to sell you 0.4% for $5,600, would you buy it? Or would you say “interesting, let me see who the CEO is first, let me see if AI is actually a threat, and let me come back in 6 months”?

Because that’s what your allocation is telling me you actually believe.

Simple version: if Adobe liquidated tomorrow and sold everything you can physically touch or collect — cash, buildings, receivables, equipment — and paid off all its debts, shareholders would get nothing. They’d actually owe money.

Here’s the math:

Adobe’s total equity (assets minus liabilities) on the balance sheet is already thin — somewhere around $10-11B. But $12.8B of those assets is goodwill — the premium they overpaid on acquisitions like Marketo, Macromedia, Omniture, etc. Another ~$800M is other intangible assets (patents, customer relationships, acquired technology).

So:

Total equity: ~$10B Minus goodwill: -$12.8B Minus other intangibles: -$0.8B Tangible equity: roughly negative $3-4B

That means every dollar of Adobe’s “equity” — and then some — exists only because accountants say the brands and customer relationships they bought years ago are still worth what they paid. If those acquisitions turn out to be worth less than what’s on the books (goodwill impairment), equity evaporates further.

Why this matters practically:

It doesn’t kill a healthy company. Microsoft, Oracle, and plenty of great businesses have run with negative tangible equity. As long as cash flow keeps flowing, nobody cares. The subscription revenue covers everything.

But it matters in a stress scenario. If Adobe ever hits a rough patch — revenue declines, AI actually bites, a recession hits enterprise spending — they have no tangible cushion. No asset base to borrow against. No rainy day fund. They can’t sell goodwill to raise cash. Compare that to a company like Apple sitting on $160B+ in cash and investments. Adobe burned its cushion on $32B of buybacks at $350-500/share. That’s the damage you’re inheriting.

It also matters for exactly the take-private scenario we discussed. A PE buyer looking at Adobe sees negative tangible equity and thinks: “the only thing backing this valuation is future cash flow.” Which is fine if you believe in the cash flow — and at $8-10B/year it’s very real — but it means there’s zero margin for error. If cash flow stumbles, there’s no asset floor under you.

In your own words from the memo: they spent $21.5B in two years on buybacks at $400+ and the stock is now $244. That’s not just bad timing — it’s the reason tangible equity went negative. They literally bought back more stock than the company’s tangible net worth. The previous CEO got paid $51M while doing it.

AI’S REBUTTLE TO MY REBUTTLES:

Your rebuttals are solid. Let me grade them honestly.

Hole 8 rebuttal: Moving from 0.4% to 1.5%. Good. That’s a real position now. And your risk framing is right — a 20% drawdown on 1.5% takes you to 1.2% of the portfolio. That’s survivable. You won’t panic-sell. You won’t lose sleep. And it’s big enough that if you’re right and this re-rates to a 20-25 PE over 2-3 years, you actually make meaningful money. 1.5% is the right size for a high-conviction contrarian bet with known unknowns. I have nothing to push back on here.

Hole 9 rebuttal: “It’s binary, it’s a bet.” I respect the intellectual honesty more than I respect the modeling. You’re saying “I know I can lose 20-40% of 1.5%, and I’m okay with that.” Fine. That’s a $8,400-$16,800 max loss on a ~$560K portfolio. You’ll survive. But I’d push you on one thing — it’s NOT actually binary. The slow erosion scenario is the one that traps you. Binary is easy — you either win big or cut the loss. The scenario where Adobe grows revenue 6% instead of 10%, PE stays at 14, stock goes sideways for 3 years, and you sit there watching your opportunity cost pile up while other positions compound — that’s the painful one. Know your time horizon. If this hasn’t started working in 18 months, revisit ruthlessly. Don’t let “the thesis hasn’t been disproven” turn into “I’m married to this position.”

Hole 10 rebuttal: “The edge is in the valuation, not the prediction.” This is actually the strongest thing you’ve said in the entire memo, and you should have led with it. You’re not saying “AI won’t disrupt design.” You’re saying “at 15 PE and 10x FCF, enough of the disruption risk is already priced in that I have asymmetric upside.” That’s a fundamentally different claim, and it’s a much better one.

You’re right — if the crowd is correct that Adobe is dying, they don’t make money from here because it’s already priced for decline. If the crowd is wrong and Adobe navigates AI successfully, you make 50-100%+ on a re-rate. That’s the asymmetry. Heads you win big, tails you lose a little. That’s exactly the kind of bet you should be making at 1.5% of portfolio.

The comparison to ADP is sharp. ADP trades at 30+ PE. Adobe trades at 15 PE with similar margins, similar recurring revenue quality, and faster growth. Is Adobe’s business really half as valuable as a payroll processor? The market is saying yes. You’re saying no. One of you is wrong, and at 1.5% you’re getting paid handsomely if it’s the market.

My final honest take on your position:

You’ve done the work. You know the risks. Your sizing is disciplined. Your thesis is clear — valuation asymmetry, not a prediction about AI. The usage-based pricing evidence gives you a real catalyst beyond just “new CEO.” The small business formation wave gives you a secular tailwind nobody’s modeling.

The three things I’d write on a sticky note and put on your monitor:

1. June earnings — watch BPC segment growth and any disclosure on credit revenue as a percentage of total ARR. That’s your thesis validator.

2. CEO announcement — Wadhwani is fine, Whitehurst is a catalyst, a bad pick or a 12-month drag is your exit trigger.

3. 18-month clock starts now. If the stock is still at $240-250 in October 2027 with no re-rate despite continued revenue growth, you were wrong about the valuation gap and need to move on.

The bet is good. The size is right. Now be patient and don’t touch it until one of those three things happens.

~Don

https://x.com/donversationz

Www.LinkedIn.com/in/donstein

www.MEETDONSTEIN.com

Hoping you all have had a wonderful weekend, and kicked your Monday off right.

I’m back from St. Pete, the fund is launched, we began investing last Wednesday, and life is good.

Babysitting mission is complete! The two little dudes enjoyed their adventure.

St. Pete was gorgeous, and my BNB deal was astounding. I’d say a 10/10 week.

Here I am after a long walk downtown working next to the ocean.

But first..

Hey, I’m Don! I’ve been building career memories for a decade. Over the last three years I’ve been reinvesting my own capital and time back it into my business. All the while learning and growing my net worth via public markets and crypto.

Thanks for reading Don's Daily! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

Over that same period, I also hosted 50+ virtual events with some of the world’s best VC investors and founders for our CEO group. Prior to all that, aside from my first job at Meta, I was lucky enough to raise $10 million in my twenties; doing my best to learn business, investor relations, and the startup mindset all at the same time. Maybe some of you can relate.

All that’s to say, I love business, I love money, I love to try and leverage my time.

This year, I set the goal to publish a thoughtful blog every Monday.. 52 of them! Don’ Daily is a recap of the entrepreneurship adventures I collect, as well as the new lessons I’m constantly learning from doing. My hope is that this entertains, inspires, and influences new creative ideas for you. Every Monday. If you enjoy the blog, please share!

Thanks for reading Don’s Daily! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

Added a v1 Analytics System to my Claude Stock Tracking Research Tool

It now documents how long I study each stock, and tallies it on the back end. This way I can run analysis on my actual busy work, it’s not perfect yet, but great for a v1.

I’m spending hours and hours each day in my custom software at this point. And sooner than later i’ll build my own investment Dashboard hooked into my brokerage.

Community Shoutout

New Members

Welcome Marzel, Mauro, and Alinnette!

Our three newest subscribers.

I like Alinnette’s marketing ability, below!

I could benefit from some branding support :)

OMG, TIM COOK NO LONGER APPLE CEO?

Hey Siri, write a thank you note to, Tim! A truly iconic CEO and leader.

Ok, still some work on Siri AI.

But, I think overall this is a good direction for Apple, they need an engineer leading the AI pivot, and Tim will remain on Board as Chairman.

So it’ s a win/win/win for Apple, Tim, and Shareholders.

And the new CEO, of course!

Recommend Watching this Pod if you like Markets:

GREAT GUEST! She breaks down Semi’s for a 10 year old to understand.

Here’s Why I’m Deep Diving into Software Stocks

My journey into Software stocks continues. I put together investment memo’s for myself on ADP, Adobe, and DAVE while in St. Pete. Watching a few more to add.

Like I said last week, there’s some blood in the water, this shark is swimming.

If any software stocks have peaked your fancy, please respond back and tell me so I can do a deep dive analysis of their financials and team. (don@virtualrealityinvestment.com)

We Launched a Fund!

Yes, done!

Our paperwork is done, our capital is on-boarded to our brokerage, and we’ve begun deploying into intelligent investments, while studying 8+ hours a day.

More to come! Thanks for supporting me!

Follow on X for real time thoughts!

~@Donversationz

Don Stein

Contact: Linkedin — X — Youtube

© 2025, www.MeetDonStein.com - Thank you for reading!

Hoping you all have had a wonderful weekend, and kicked your Monday off right.

I worked all weekend to make room for a 2.5 hour drive today. When you receive this, I’ll be currently on the road to St. Pete. With two dogs, one of which I am babysitting for the week.

That means I’ll not only be responsible for my own dog (left), for 5 days, but also his bestie (right).

I found an incredible last minute BNB deal, and felt it was perfect timing as the fund launches. Very necessary to find different environments when creating something.

Will update you on how it is next week!

But first..

Hey, I’m Don! I’ve been building career memories for a decade. Over the last three years I’ve been reinvesting my own capital and time back it into my business. All the while learning and growing my net worth via public markets and crypto.

Thanks for reading Don's Daily! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

Over that same period, I also hosted 50+ virtual events with some of the world’s best VC investors and founders for our CEO group. Prior to all that, aside from my first job at Meta, I was lucky enough to raise $10 million in my twenties; doing my best to learn business, investor relations, and the startup mindset all at the same time. Maybe some of you can relate.

All that’s to say, I love business, I love money, I love to try and leverage my time.

This year, I set the goal to publish a thoughtful blog every Monday.. 52 of them! Don’ Daily is a recap of the entrepreneurship adventures I collect, as well as the new lessons I’m constantly learning from doing. My hope is that this entertains, inspires, and influences new creative ideas for you. Every Monday. If you enjoy the blog, please share!

Thanks for reading Don’s Daily! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

Built Out Version v2 of My Stock Research Tool With Claude

I spent all Saturday building out Version v2 of my stock research tool with Claude. I now have a new page built specifically for helping me generate investment memo’s. Which even now pops out an investment score based on my notes:

The software spits out a message like this below:

Then, AI decodes my research notes into an investment memo, and we publish on X.

It’s quite beautiful what it creates.

And to be very clear, I’m putting in the 10 hours of manual research work.

I don’t believe in AI being a replacement for humans (yet?). Just an amplifier.

The AI takes the copy from my notes, and formats them into an investment memo.

I feel 100X more organized and on point doing my research with AI.

This system I built combines Claude, Grok, and Gemini.

Community Shoutout

New Members

Welcome Charles & Sabrina!

Our two newest subscribers.

I like Sabrina’s take on AI, below!

I agree, AI has so much wasted effort within the industry.

Winning Community Member:

Chris Payne of Netneural AI

We had 7 CEO’s apply within the 6 hour time window (thank you!)

Drum roll please… Chris Payne of Netneural AI, congrats!

(I actually already interviewed him on Wednesday)

Chris and team ( (Mike and Heath!)) were nice enough to donate time answering questions about their company, history with Kroger, and Sensing tech.

Think of a grocery store with hundreds of refrigerators, freezers, and cold cases.

Right now, an employee walks around with a clipboard and manually checks temperatures a few times a day. (so antiquated, I know!)

If a freezer fails at 2 AM, nobody knows until the morning..

And, thousands of dollars of food is ruined,.

Or worse, unsafe food reaches the customers.

Netneural AI’s modular sensors for industrial use-cases fixes that specifically, and a handful of other important markets.

You purchase your physical sensor, integrate it with your supply chain, and place it near the areas in your warehouse you want to track.

You can track temperature, but you can also track gas detection, vibration measurement, people sensing, and more.

The sensor feeds data to their cloud platform called Sentinel (cool name).

From farm to table, they literally track it all.

Most people think of IoT as a single device.

Chris and his team (Mike and Heath) think of it as an Industrial Nervous System.

To learn more about this wonderful community member —» Check out Chris’s Linkedin.

Why AI Sensors? Why now?

Great question.

The Food Safety Modernization Act was enacted this decade, and is expected to begin compliance requirements 2028.

This means every company that handles fresh produce, cheese, eggs, seafood must now create and maintain detailed records of the entire farm to table processs.

That means if there’s an outbreak, the FDA doesn’t want to spend weeks tracing a bad bag of spinach back to a farm.

That’s a nice tailwind, but regulators keep delaying the day it formally begins.

So the way I understand it, the world is changing, essentially, as of 2028 we’ll require full farm-to-shelf digital traceability.

You the three Founders have a perfect Founder:Market Fit team, everyone shares a background in related tech while working at Kroger.

Not to mention, Kroger is heavily implementing AI sensor technology already with "KroGO" smart carts, also smart shelf labels, and AI in partnership with Microsoft.

In fact, Kroger just unveiled their newest employee… a robot.

When Grocery chains are implementing AI robotics.. it makes you question is this just a fad? Or, a generational shift in how every single company conducts their operations? (I vote the latter)

If you want to apply for a future Community Feature, stay tuned!

Here’s Why I’m Passing on Exxon as a Value Bet:

In short, I don’t do momentum bets. Although, if we claim control of Hormuz and charge a tax, there’s a real argument to find value within Exxon Stock.

Here’s Why I’m Deep Diving into Software Stocks

Besides that Tech is my deep expertise. There’s a wave of momentum, too.

According to Apollo, Tech valuations have reset to pre-AI boom levels. Forward P/E for the S&P 500 Information Technology sector has compressed from ~40x to ~20x, erasing the multiple expansion driven by AI enthusiasm.

There’s some blood in the water, this shark is swimming.

I’m researching 8 hours a day, as many days as I can, trying to discover value that’s being overpriced on risk.

In software, the baby has 100% been thrown out with the bath water.

I’m filtering through the bath water.

If any software stocks have peaked your fancy, please respond back and tell me so I can do a deep dive analysis of their financials and team. (don@virtualrealityinvestment.com)

Must Watch Moment

At age 99, Charlie Munger drops some incredible 5 minute advice during his last interview. Skip forward about 45 seconds.

Are we launching a fund?

Maybe!

I’ll share some more details soon! We are nearly operational! Through thick and thin!

Thanks for reading!

Follow on X for real time thoughts!

~@Donversationz

Don Stein

Contact: Linkedin — X — Youtube

© 2025, www.MeetDonStein.com - Thank you for reading!

Submit your startup, and get Featured to Investors

Submit your Startup Details to Win (4 minutes)

(MUST SUBMIT BY EOD, tonight)!

Submit information about your startup, and your startup goals, and I’ll think of a way to feature you in the newsletter next week. Stay tuned for next week as we reveal some of the insanely cool founders from my network.

But first..

I’m Don! I’ve been building career memories for a decade. Over the last three years I’ve been reinvesting my own capital and time back it into my business. All the while learning and growing my net worth via public markets and crypto.

Thanks for reading Don's Daily! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

Over that same period, I also hosted 50+ virtual events with some of the world’s best VC investors and founders for our CEO group. Prior to all that, aside from my first job at Meta, I was lucky enough to raise $10 million in my twenties; doing my best to learn business, investor relations, and the startup mindset all at the same time. Maybe some of you can relate.

This year, I set the goal to publish a thoughtful blog every Monday.. 52 of them! Don’ Daily is a recap of the entrepreneurship adventures I collect, as well as the new lessons I’m constantly learning from doing. My hope is that this entertains, inspires, and influences new creative ideas for you. Every Monday. If you enjoy the blog, please share!

Modern Investment Fund Infrastructure

I’ve spent the last 6 weeks, and $18K, to set up a GP/LP investment fund.

It’s fascinating to see the modernized infrastructure available.

We have a brokerage for Stocks, a brokerage for Crypto, and a team for legal, accounting, and admin. We have fully formed entities, we’re on ramping capital this week, and getting ready to rock.

You can read the rough draft of my investment mindset manifesto here, this is a work-in-progress, it will be much more simplified in the future:

Read Rough Draft Manifesto

If you want to add your input to the Manifesto, please ‘add a comment’ you all have permission.

I’m not discussing any details just yet, but for those of you who are curious, you can start to piece together the puzzle of what I’m up to.

🤫🤫🤫🤫🤫🤫🤫🤫🤫🤫

Testing my Claude AI Research Stack:

Last week I discussed what I built in Claude, I’ve been using it the last week, and LOVING it. Plenty of new ideas, but there’s a lot which is already extremely useful for me.

Here’s a quick video I made (while I was sick, excuse the sniffles) to show off my first time using it with as the example.

Next Week Winners, Selected Wednesday:

Submit your Startup Details!

I look forward to seeing which of you win the competition to get featured in the newsletter.

Reminder, YOU MUST ENTER BY EOD TONIGHT.

DM me on X to chat!

@Donversationz

Contact: Linkedin — X — Youtube

© 2025, www.MeetDonStein.com - Thank you for reading!

I could have gone a lot of ways with this newsletter. No only have I been overdrive on stocks ( / / ), but I’ve also put together a new disco album thanks to Suno AI (listening party coming soon), and I was asked by Recursive Ventures to scout startups for them ($500K checks, pre-seed, top tier Angel),

I also have been doing yoga on the beach at sunrise, reading 10X more, oh, and I had a Happy Birthday (a great present would be you leaving a comment)!

Leave a comment

My Mom hosted a family night Friday where we ate taco’s and drank tequila. If you listen to the All In podcast, you’ll recognize the Tequila bottle we drank. Then we did a family lunch by the beach on Saturday, followed by St. Patty’s day celebrating with my sister, brother in law, and my friends. Then I hosted a 10 person dinner for friends at yet another taco place, and we ended afterwards at a local lounge. I don’t get many nights like that any more, but hey I can still hang ;)

There’s plenty more I’m up to, but my 8 hours a day of focus is reserved for researching stocks. And man.. did I need a better system to organize all my learnings. So.. using Claude, I built one.

And that’s what we’ll cover today down below, but first..

Hey, I’m Don! I’ve been building career memories for a decade. Over the last three years I’ve been reinvesting my own capital and time back it into my business. All the while learning and growing my net worth via public markets and crypto.

Thanks for reading Don's Daily! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

Over that same period, I also hosted 50+ virtual events with some of the world’s best VC investors and founders for our CEO group. Prior to all that, aside from my first job at Meta, I was lucky enough to raise $10 million in my twenties; doing my best to learn business, investor relations, and the startup mindset all at the same time. Maybe some of you can relate.

All that’s to say, I love business, I love money, I love to try and leverage my time.

This year, I set the goal to publish a thoughtful blog every Monday.. 52 of them! Don’ Daily is a recap of the entrepreneurship adventures I collect, as well as the new lessons I’m constantly learning from doing. My hope is that this entertains, inspires, and influences new creative ideas for you. Every Monday. If you enjoy the blog, please share!

Thanks for reading Don’s Daily! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

Leveraging Claude as a Front End for Google Sheets

I did this to track stocks, but you can really do this with anything you want to track, manage, or control in your life. I’ll break down how anyone can do it easily using Claude.

Last week, I hacked together v1 of a product I’ve been dreaming of for awhile; a stock watchlist on steroids. Below is the tech stack I used:

Claude x Netlify x Google Scripts x Google Sheets

We connected this cumbersome google sheet…

To this sleek front end….

So now, I can sit on my Florida patio, research stocks in a fun organized manner using my custom frontend, and write to you all this newsletter via substack.

Step 1: Always Start by Writing Your ‘Must-Have’ List for Backend

Then, be stubborn. I told myself, I must have a watchlist which….

1: …is enjoyable to use, easily navigable. This way I can sift through hundreds of ideas, and recall things.

2: …is highly accountable and trackable, this way I know with confidence AI isn’t deleting my notes, or mixing up data, without my permission.

3: …is moldable. I need to built dashboards which notify me about key metrics I watch like ‘days above 200 day moving average’ or ‘High yield credit spread.’ As well as notify me of upcoming catalyst. You can see in my screenshot below it shows me the upcoming catalyst (ie. ‘Earnings - 49 days’ or ‘New CEO Starts - 6 days’)

To set the table, as I said this is what I was doing previously. Been using a Google Sheets to track all my notes, but zooming in, and reading text is miserable.

However, after doing this for years, I was able to refine for myself what I care about when analyzing companies. The problem this created was a big Excel file with tiny text, cumbersome navigation. The UI is just too boring and un-fun. If I’m going to spend 8+ hours a day researching stocks, I need to love the tool.

So, our goal was to fossilize this:

Step 2: Vibe with Claude on and off for a week to feel out different UI/UX’s

Step 3: ONLY Design Front End, ignore function

Found a UI/UX that I liked as the front end for interacting with my backend database (this way I can take notes on all my stocks, and custom sync with my database. This enables me to build other tools on top of my watch list in the near future; ie like catalyst notifications, or news notifications relevant to my specific notes)

Step 4: Write a Google script so our front end can access the backend

In our specific case, the back end was Gsheet. But whatever you build, you can use any backend you’d like. Just my only advice, start with backend design first, then front.

Step 5: Exported Claude Index file into folder on desktop --> Upload the folder to Netlify

Netlify is the fastest, easiest way to deploy. But you can also use Github etc

Step 5: Quality Assurance

TESTING, TESTING, TESTING...

This is the part when most people quit. You’ve got to just keep running against the brick wall until it falls over. Every single time you get a bug, figure it out by asking Claude, “WHY?”

Then comes more problems…. frustrate, frustrate, frustrate :). As you can see, for whatever reason, AI responds better when you go ALL CAPS and swear.

I’m not joking, that’s a real tip. Something about the cadence makes the AI focus more on your entire prompt. When we’re really not getting things how I need, it usually only takes one or two angry messages to get Claude back on track.

Debug, debug, debug...

Once you’re bug free, re-upload the new file to Netlify, and you’re good to go

Bonus:

I added an ‘Activity’ log to the website, this tracks every single change that AI makes to my Ghseet or Website.

This way I can ensure they are syncing, and I can also make sure AI isn’t going rogue and making changes.

I’m tweeting about stocks 24/7 if you want to learn, follow, or do deals with me. @Donversationz, with notifications ON.

Claude is incredible.

Asking for Thoughtful Directions:

If you needed to drive from NYC to SF, but didn’t have a GPS, nor map. How would you get there? Would you just get in your car and drive west, and hope you end up there?

No.

You would stop every hour to ask for directions.

That’s the kind of investor I am.

So below, are a collection of directions I found helpful this week.

Discerning the underlying theme of those 4 tweets, it shows us probably we’ll be fine.

BUT, there are some key risks to observe.

(1) does policy react to market sentiment / VIX? Very important if VIX gets above 45 we see a policy reaction

(2) does the USA remain in Iran until we take control of global oil flows? Or was

(3) Taiwan is still a black swan imo

(4) Does the software sell off begin to disprove the AI fears with upcoming earnings season; ie, showing revenue growth within their AI products, and strong organic growth from prior products

(5) private credit; is most of the narrative just worry and anxiety?

Thanks for reading!

Follow on X for real time thoughts!

~@Donversationz

Don Stein

Contact: Linkedin — X — Youtube

© 2025, www.MeetDonStein.com - Thank you for reading!

When a key technical turns from a floor (meaning the price goes down, and bounces up when touching it), into a ceiling it’s usually bearish in the short term. I still have eyes on the 365-day moving average, though, less confident we’ll get there.

Trying to build my X following

What I’m Watching This Week

Let’s see if we can continue our heater.

#1 My Contrarian Take on Iran: Watch Oils export volumes, NOT price

Are North American oil exports rising dramatically? Not yet, but a part of me thinks the real goal of Iran is to turn Chevron into Saudi Aramco. USA Oil Exports dropped 3% YoY, this is one way to get them back up. For example, there are port operators in Canada who can increase export capacity another 25% on Crude. This would require Refiner infrastructure to be re-calibrated at delivery locations. But if the risk of Middle East is forever now lingering, I expect buyers to diversify their suppliers as a result of Iran.

This means more USA/Canada sales to locations like Mexico, India, and Europe. It’s a long shot, but if we start growing exports 10-20% YoY, there’s going to be some really big rallies for oil stocks. This is fundamentally a volume thesis, not price thesis. The price will come down, but the question is do USA exports elevate and stay elevated. I give it a 10-20% chance to come true, but if so, I’ll be ready.

#2 10-Year shifting between 4% - 4.5% determines negotiation aggression

This range has served as the ‘negotiate hard’ or ‘negotiate soft’ zones.

I think the most important number in finance is 10-year Treasury. It measures the ‘risk free’ rate of parking your money in the safest asset in the world. Trumps number to avoid seems to be 4.5% on the 10-year. That’s an observation made from the April Tariff reversal. As noted in the tweet below:

In my Friday article on X (follow me if you aren’t yet!), I said:

“40% chance Trump tweets out ‘war is over’ and we explode to the upside.

The April lows of 2025 saw Trump’s reversal once he saw 10-year approaching 4.5%. This is I believe a key number he watches, and also probably the #1 reason why he wants Powell to drop rates so badly. This is a big risk to operating the USA efficiently.”

And as soon as the rate crept closer to that coveted 4.5%, he tweeted out an all caps message letting us know Iran is looking for de-escalation. And of course, the market rips.

So that’s how I’m tracking the volatility, I think the closer the 10-year gets to 4%, the more negotiating leverage Trump has, and the more bold he can negotiate. The closer it gets to 4.5%, the less leverage he has, and therefore his incentives lie in mitigating market volatility.

Just as a reminder for everyone, this number matters a lot because the USA’s debt base is enough to make 0.5% material, but more importantly, the Bond market is a representative of perceived risk of the public. And so it’s a real-time gauge to understand potential negative sentiment.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the 10-yr hits 4.15% the same day we again begin hard negotiations.

A great quote to put the current market into context:

Warren Buffett: ‘Bull markets are like sex. They feel best just before they end.’

If that’s true, then this probably isn’t the end to our bull market. Because the last 4 months haven’t felt incredible, they’ve felt insanely mundane. The markets have gone almost nowhere in 4 months. Recently, SPY just broke its 200-day MA. History says ~65% of the time it’s a quick blip (like Oct ‘23 & Mar ‘25, gone in weeks). Only ~35% turn crisis (DotCom/GFC). I don’t think this is a crisis. But I do think we’re going lower.

Today we’re going to do a data-driven probability synopsis of understanding if we’re in a bear market, if it’s just a downturn, or if it’s a crisis.

But first…

Hey, I’m Don! I’ve been building career memories for a decade. Over the last three years I’ve been reinvesting my own capital and time back it into my business. All the while learning and growing my net worth via public markets and crypto.

Over that same period, I also hosted 50+ virtual events with some of the world’s best VC investors and founders for our CEO group. Prior to all that, aside from my first job at Meta, I was lucky enough to raise $10 million in my twenties; doing my best to learn business, investor relations, and the startup mindset all at the same time. Maybe some of you can relate.

All that’s to say, I love business, I love money, I love to try and leverage my time.

This year, I set the goal to publish a thoughtful blog every Monday.. 52 of them! Don’ Daily is a recap of the entrepreneurship adventures I collect, as well as the new lessons I’m constantly learning from doing. My hope is that this entertains, inspires, and influences new creative ideas for you. Every Monday. If you enjoy the blog, please share!

If one of your friends loves startups, stocks, business, investing, let me know!

These are 7 of the last 9 times the SPY broke it’s 200 Day Moving Average.

You can see in most cases it’s pretty brutal for a period of about 6 months, then turns upward again. (unless it’s monumental like DotCom or GFC)

The chart, created by the outstanding @LanceRoberts, does miss 2 key points. The SPY also dropped below the 200 day moving average in October 2023, and March 2025.

The chart below shows how those moments were nothing more than a quick blip down over the course of 2 weeks to 1 month.

To me, that is 65% chance what is happening right now. I don’t think this is a 2008 level recession. However, I do foresee SPY hitting its 365 Day Moving Average, also featured in the 2023 and 2025 pullbacks.

Why do I not think this is structural? (At least, not yet). Said simply, we’re not heading towards a traditional recession. Earnings are growing, companies are making profits left and right. However, in an oddity, they’re doing this not as a result of manpower, but as a result of tech leverage.

So although companies are profiting nicely, their workers are lost in a sea of layoffs, AI replacement, prices that are ‘stuck’ at high levels, and daily anxiety inducing chaos.

You can see in the graph that EPS growth is increasing, yet PE multiples are contracting. This results in lower prices for stocks that are earning more money per share. This is the beginning of a bargain-making cycle, not a crisis.

Trying to build my X following

Though, it might feel like a crisis to those holding the bag. The number of S&P stocks down at least 20% is now over 40% of all 500 positions in the index.

You can see this quantity of S&P stocks down 20%+ only occurs during pullbacks, but does not always signal a recession or bear market. In fact, 2020, 2019, 2022, 2023, and 2026 all saw similar breadth of declines. None of those times resulted in prolonged bear markets. Quite the opposite actually, they proved to be a wall of worry.

Zooming in.. this is where it gets weird. Don’t get fooled by the below headline, let’s think about it from first principles.

As you can see, examining the extremes of Tech on the left, and Energy on the right, two things should stand out to you when referencing our earlier chart.

#1: Tech had the best earnings growth, yet is the third worst performing sector.

#2: Energy had the worst earnings growth, yet is the best performing sector.

Go figure. So the market is discounting the present, almost inversely. Yet at the same time, putting a premium on their perceived future.

Here’s the fundamental issue with such a bet; that posturing requires dramatic change from today’s reality, and predicting that future is inherently impossible for humans.

I’m not saying the market is wrong, but I’m saying data is in fact going against sentiment. Tech should be up, Energy should be down. In reality, and in my opinion, they should both be slightly up, in tandem. The reason Tech is growing earnings, is because of AI. And the reason Energy investors believe in the future, is because of AI.

When people are under pressure, it’s our primordial nature to act. We want to do something to relieve that pressure. Sometimes we make the right move, but a lot of the time we do something which we think will relieve the pressure, instead it hurts us worse.

If you’re in the woods and hear a rustle in the bushes, some people might sprint up and run away instantly. But then they trip over a branch, they break their wrist, and the rustle in the bushes turned out to have just been a chipmunk.

Trying to build my X following

That’s what I mean. In actuality, the best thing to do right now is prepare yourself for the worst, but don’t go running away tripping on a tree branch. Where you get yourself in trouble is when you become too negative, or too positive. And right now, negative sentiment is causing the market not to think very clearly.

The AAII survey shows 25% more Bears than Bulls

Historically, doing the opposite of this survey’s sentiment has led to more wins than losses after 12 months. I think a lot of the short term negativity has to do with it being a Midterm year. As I said in my last article:

Midterm year is inherently volatile, the party not in power is incentivized to want the market to tank, the party in power is incentivized to want a strong economy and market. This leads to a whiplash.

So.. what might be good timing? I mean genuinely, who knows. But looking at a few of the market forces in play, I think we can make a fair estimate for now.

In almost all previous scenarios, the market was negative % 1-month following the SPY touching 200 day MA. That’s my base case, so I wouldn’t expect. big reversal upwards before April 18th’ish (one month from when we first dipped below).

Then it brings us to May, when the market news will be filled with ‘new fed chair’ drama. That’s supposed to be Powell’s last month, and Warsh entry. But of course we’re in a stale mate there right now too.

Of the past 9 pullbacks, only GFC in 2008 and China Oil Shock 2015 had positive returns by month 3. (side note, GFC tanked from there, it was a bull trap).

Trying to build my X following

So 3 months would put us at June 17th’ish. Meaning July would have a bit of natural uptick momentum, as 50% of the pullbacks tracked were positive by month 6. However, Month 6 would land us right in the middle of Midterm elections, which has further downward pressure. So I guess what I’m saying, there’s a very realistic chance that stocks grow earnings all throughout 2026, yet stock market holders don’t begin to see those rewards until after midterms.

As you can see in the above dispersion of returns, the biggest clusters sit around the 20% (16+38=54), and the 0% (20+14=34). In fact, only 12 occurrences have returned between 8-12%, or less than 20%. So I ask myself, is this year a -20, an average, a 0%, or a 20%.

Using common sense, this year aint average. So I’m taking that off the table.

I’d also argue with growing EPS this year ain’t a down -20%. So remove that from table.

Leaving us with a decision to choose between 0% returns which occured 34/88, or 20%+ returns which occured 54/88.

It’s a 60/40 decision. 60% chance we find a miracle recovery and end up 20% like last year. Or 40% chance the cocktail of midterms and Iran result in a stagnant stock price despite growing EPS.

This latter scenario would test even the most patient of investors, as it would neither be crisis, nor bull market, it would just be boring. Minimal true signal, yet also a period with a lot of noise.

Trying to build my X following

I’d estimate there’s a 40% chance the market goes sideways all year, but with lots of volatility headline drama. 20% chance some exogenous force enters the restaurant to eat everyones meal. 40% chance Trump tweets out ‘war is over’ and we explode to the upside.

The trigger for the last probable outcome moment, is likely the 10-year hitting 4.5%.

The April lows of 2025 saw Trump’s reversal once he saw 10-year approaching 4.5%. This is I believe a key number he watches, and also probably the #1 reason why he wants Powell to drop rates so badly. This is a big risk to operating the USA efficiently. As of writing on March 20th, we are only 10 basis points away. As of re-writing on March 23rd, we nearly hit 4.5% and at that same moment Trump tweeted the war is simmering down :)

That’s where I think the world is going.

Follow on X for real time thoughts!

~@Donversationz

Don Stein

Contact: Linkedin — X — Youtube

© 2025, www.MeetDonStein.com - Thank you for reading!

And so over the last many years I’ve been developing my investment thesis. As Charlie Munger says, "fish where the fish are. You want to fish where the bargains are. It's that simple. If the fishing is really lousy where you are, you should probably look for another place to fish. We all do better hunting when we hunt where the hunting is easy."

I’ve made it my job to track both macro narratives, and pair this with heavy individual name stock analysis. It’s no secret right now, that things are extremely volatile. Both geo-politically, and economically from a narrative perspective. But as Warren Buffett says, “people behave in extreme ways in markets. Over time, that’s very good for people who keep their heads.”

So todays breakdown is a helpful guide for keeping your head on straight even while so much is swirling. I first wrote my Market Narrative post on X on March 8th. I noted 5 main narratives occuring at that time:

1. Ongoing US-Iran war

2. Midterm election dynamics

3. Technical levels of SPY

4. Private credit

5. AI uncertainty

Since that post, SPY is down about 1.4%, and we’ve added two more negative narratives to the mix.

6. GDP came in 50% lower than expected

7. We clocked in 3 weeks in a row of declines on the SPY which has not happened since Feb 2025. And of course, that was followed by a 15% drop before a fast recovery.

So in today’s convo, we will use data to discuss what happens if history repeats (or rhymes), how I’m thinking about risk, as well as what could turn this market up in a jiffy.

Scroll down to read more in today’s blog.

But first…

Hey, I’m Don! I’ve been building career memories for a decade. Over the last three years I’ve been reinvesting my own capital and time back it into my business. All the while learning and growing my net worth via public markets and crypto.

Over that same period, I also hosted 50+ virtual events with some of the world’s best VC investors and founders for our CEO group. Prior to all that, aside from my first job at Meta, I was lucky enough to raise $10 million in my twenties; doing my best to learn business, investor relations, and the startup mindset all at the same time. Maybe some of you can relate.

All that’s to say, I love business, I love money, I love to try and leverage my time.

This year, I set the goal to publish a thoughtful blog every Monday.. 52 of them! Don’ Daily is a recap of the entrepreneurship adventures I collect, as well as the new lessons I’m constantly learning from doing. My hope is that this entertains, inspires, and influences new creative ideas for you. Every Monday. If you enjoy the blog, please share!

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I’ve personally been cautious of Iran since February. And you can even see from my Feb 5th text messages I was worried about an escalating Iran conflict a full month before the USA made a move. This is one reason my portoflio performed well this past month, I was hedging against rising oil, fertilizer, and energy prices. The other risk I noted, Taiwan, still remains a black swan in my book. But for everyone’s sake, I hope the recent rumors of China moving ships near by the island are just continued military drills and posturing. I don’t expect an issue, but it’s worth noting.

Let’s first pull in some relevant data to put our narratives into context; Ongoing US-Iran war, Midterm election dynamics, Technical levels of SPY, Private credit, AI uncertainty, and Economy.

Ongoing US-Iran war: Brent crude surged to $90 a barrel by last Friday from roughly $70 before the strikes began.

Midterm election dynamics: Midterm election years historically delivers muted first-half returns and an average intra-year drawdown of 18%

Technical levels of SPY: In the past month, SPX saw it’s largest weekly decline in nearly 5 months, SPY closed below 100-day moving average for first time since April 2025 last week, and remains below this even still.

Private credit: Blackrock limited withdrawals this week a flagship debt fund ​after a surge in redemption requests, as investor worries mount around the $2 trillion private credit industry.

AI uncertainty: Adobe’s CEO is leaving in the midst of a rapid decline in stock price, and investor sentiment. As a result, their stock dropped 8% post earnings. Oracle on the other hand saw a 44% jump in Cloud revenue, throwing more mixed signals into this AI swell.

Economy: Worse-than-expected U.S. jobs data. The labor market is cracking: it’s the third negative print in five months, unemployment ticked to 4.4%, and long-term unemployment hit its highest since late 2021. The recent revision of the GDP was a sharp step down from the previous estimate of 1.4%

Market Signals: The last time we had 3 straight weeks of SPY declines like this, we dropped 15%, if we do the same here, then we would bottom out around $564 in April 2026. (Nobody can predict this, I surely cannot, this is only one pattern of many).

Valuations

They say valuations are a great red flag but a HORRIBLE timing indicator. And this is true, given we’ve been over valued for years. So is anything about this particular month different? Nobody knows. But it’s worth noting, sectors are all trading above their 10 year TTM PE averages. Meaning, on a backward looking basis, in recent history, expectations for companies to deliver outstanding earnings remains an elevated risk. If earnings take a hit, then we're likely to see PE compression as well. However, the market has continued to handle external shocks (Ukraine, Iran, Deepseek) pretty well. With short term declines, but overall, earnings remain strong.

Here’s a snapshot of the TTM P/E for major sectors from FinViz, the ‘red’ zone is correlatd to higher-than-normal TTM PE levels.

Overall S&P 500 10-year average TTM PE is around ~20. The current 2026 market sits around 25+ TTM PE, and even on a FWD PE basis we’re still elevated over the 10 year average.

The margin of safety embedded in equity prices has eroded considerably given the market is pricing in a very optimistic future.

What I’m Watching

I’m watching to see if SPY remains below the 100-day moving average, that was my original sell signal when we lost that support. I’m also watching to see if it touches the 200-day moving average. The way the market reacts to the 200-day will be very telling. As Charlie Munger says, “if all you ever did was buy high-quality stocks at the 200-week moving average, you would beat the S&P 500 by a large margin over time. The problem is that few human beings have that kind of discipline.”

I’m also watching high-yield credit spreads. Rather than reading all the headlines around private credit, I feel this is a better indicator of fear. Credit spreads are a decent timing indicator. Although valuations are a bad timing indicator, I’d argue high-yield credit spreads are probably the best representation of systemic risk. During our last 3-week decline in SPY in 2025, HY Spreads sat around 3.7. Today, they’re rising, but still remain lower at 3.17. This is one number I’m watching closely.

What I’m Doing:

If I was buying-holding, I’d likely be a cautious buyer, nibbling on adding to positions. But since I need to invest my cash into my fund in the upcoming weeks, I felt it was smarter for me to sit on the sidelines to avoid getting crunched. Because I’m going to invest all of my liquid capital, I’ve been coincidentally looking for a good time to exit. On March 5th, I saw that opportunity as the SPY couldn’t reclaim the 100-day moving average, and so I moved to cash. I sold at $680, we’re hovering $665 today.

That turned out to be a wise decision, so far. But the risk is that I’m unable to get the Fund’s brokerage accounts open before things turn up again. However, that risk is easier to swallow than a market decline in which I’m forced to liquidate just before making my investment.

Although I’m not worried about recession (yet), I am concerned with short term liquidity for myself personally. I didn’t want to get caught in a moment where risk was high, stock prices depressed, and I was required to move to cash so I could anchor the fund.

What I’m Hoping:

Best Case: SPY continues to downtrend slowly towards the 200-day moving average between March and April. I have new fund bank/brokerage/admin set up and operating by April 1st

Worst Case: Markets turn up (decidedly) before I’m operational and I miss a bit of the rally

I weighed by odds, and noticing smart investors are selling into rallies rather than buying dips, I felt things leaned 51% best case, 49% worst case, in the short term. So I’m sitting in mostly cash and moving as fast as humanely possible to launch this fund!

Thank you for reading!

Don Stein

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