[WEEK 29/52]: Everything you need to know about the market today + 100K Substack Views

Hi Everyone - We cover what's interesting today, this week, in stocks. Deep dive into one of my favorite, but most complicated investments. And, explore our Substack stats now that we hit 100k+ views

Don Stein

Jul 06, 2026

Today’s Macro

MSFT lays off 5K employees

High Yield Credit Spreads Remain Tight

Global Markets Barely Move, but lean Red

Market Narrative Catalyst This Week

Monday, July 6 (Today)

10:00 AM ET: ISM Services PMI (June) — The big one. Services is ~70% of the economy.
- Previous (May): 54.5.
  - Consensus hovering 54.0 to 54.3 range.
    - Soft print = growth worries + higher rate-cut odds
    - Hot print = sticky inflation pushback on cuts.
Fed Governor Waller speech (afternoon) — fresh commentary layered on top.

This sets up as a day to fuel the ‘rate cut vs no rate cut’ narrative.

Tuesday, July 7

8:30 AM ET: U.S. International Trade Balance (May)
Weekly jobless claims.
Wholesale inventories data.

Wednesday, July 8

FOMC Minutes (June 16-17 meeting)
- Highest impact item of the week
- This is the first minutes under Warsh.
- Markets will parse every word on inflation path, labor market, and rate-cut timing ahead of the July 28-29 FOMC.
- Any shift in dot plot thinking or balance-of-risk language moves yields and risk assets fast.

This sets up as a second day to fuel the ‘rate cut vs no rate cut’ narrative.

Earnings Catalyst This Week

Thursday
- PEP (PepsiCo) — BMO
- PGR (Progressive) — BMO
- WDFC (WD-40) — AMC
Friday
- DAL (Delta Air Lines) — BMO
- H (Hyatt Hotels)

Portfolio Review

UAMY 0.00%↑: Refueling America’s Strategic Stock Piles

Wether we like it or not, the world is a dangerous place. And the best form of protection is prevention from attacks. That requires all sorts of tech and materials in order to keep us safe on a daily basis.

99.99% of us don’t think about the fact that on a daily basis we would be in harms way if it not for incredible USA intelligence and defense. So my investment into UAMY isn’t a vote for war, it’s a vote for further peace.

There’s a mineral called Antimony. It’s mined in China, South America, etc… almost 0 in USA. And then once you mine the ore, you need to put it into a smelter to refine it.

Why is Antimony important? It’s chemically mixed into ammunition to harden the materials. Antimony is a critical mineral used in munitions, weapons systems, flame retardants, & electronics So I thought to myself, the USA has said our ammunition stock piles are low… meaning big Trump daddy needs to buy a lot more stock piles for the military.

But… China has stopped selling us antimony. And the USA has no way to create it.

So I found the only the main (and essentially only significant) fully integrated antimony mining + smelting/processing company operating in the US right now…. And on a podcast the CEO said, ‘oh yeah I was talking with Don Jr. the other day…’

So I’m like hm….. I bet that Trump is about to buy a ton of Antimony from this company.

The CEO also noted to keep up with demand they’re going to push back renovations on facility so they can keep it operating at capacity.

They also commissioned expanded smelting furnaces at their new Thompson Falls, Montana facility.

Last week —> They announced a press release that the government is buying 250M worth of Antimony from them… and they just delivered the first 50M. Stock went up 5-10% in value in 2 hours on the news.

$245 million (sometimes cited ~$248M) sole-source, 5-year IDIQ contract with Department of War. IDIQ meaning they can order up to that 250M, not that it’s required. So not as solid as money in hand… however, the contractor (UAMY) gets the sole-source award, which means they’re the only approved supplier for that specific antimony ingot requirement.

First physical deliveries happened in Q2 2026: ~82,000 pounds of antimony metal ingots shipped.
Total government orders to date: $57.3 million under this contract.
- ~$2.6 million invoiced in June from those initial shipments.

So now USA will get our ammunitions inventory back, and this company is basically the only one in the USA as of 2026 that can provide it to us.

Great video if you want to meet the UAMY CEO

They’re also going heavy into Antimony exploration in Alaksa, and expanding into Tungsten (second hardest mineral behind diamonds, used for submarines, tanks, shields, etc..).

Around 2:30-3:00 in that video, Gary says something to the tune of, “we bought a property in Canada last May. And did enough work to get a third party resource report, and it shows $4.6B of future revenues from that property. So we are on a fast track to get that up in operation.”

So their current supply is becoming increasingly more valuable, and, they’re adding alternative revenue sources from other valuable assets and minerals.

Gary Evans, Perfect CEO:Market Fit

Prior to UAMY, Gary was CEO/Founder and scaled from $0 to $2B. He built Magnum Hunter Resources Inc. (MHRI) for ~20 years.

Founded the company in 1985 with just $1,000 near the bottom of an oil price crash. Built it into a NYSE-listed energy company focused on unconventional resources (Appalachian Basin, Eagle Ford, etc.).
Sold it in June 2005 for approximately $2.2 billion

Fundamentals Breakdown

Strong Revenue Doubling YoY

This company did $14M in 2024… doubled it to $39M in 2025…. and Gary is guiding for $110M+ revenue in 2026 (doubling yet again).

In addition, the quality of that $110M is supposed to be roughly $60M+ from DoW. Those should be fairly sticky as USA shifts material sourcing/processing from China to on-shore.

On the most recent earnings call, Gary said:

“...I’ve looked very hard at our $125 million revenue guidance for this year. I’m convinced we can do it. And you’re seeing that occurring now with deliveries to the federal government. I would say $75 million to $95 million of the $125 million will be federal government shipments of antimony ingots by the end of the year.

And with the ramp-up that’s occurring now, with the additional inventory we built with additional antimony supplies coming in, I’m highly confident that we can make those numbers.”

So if we rely on that $100M rev, then 10x Sales for a company growing 100% YoY on Revenue seems like a bargain, but ONLY IF, they can double once again in 2027.

Btw, they have no net debt also. And actually have a positive cash position, this is great news for a company who you’d think would be CapEx heavy. I think it shows efficiency. And no preferred stock. Nice set up. Only 100 employees as well. Efficient.

And tangible book value per share has grown nicely.

What are the replacement costs of assets?

1. Thompson Falls / Sanders County, Montana

Antimony Smelter & Processing Facility (Flagship US Asset)

Only permitted/operating antimony smelter in the US

2. Fostung tungsten project in Ontario

Bought the Fostung tungsten project in Ontario for $5 million in June 2025.

In March 2026, they released a technical report that shows an Inferred resource of 14.62 million tonnes grading 0.17% WO3. Using the tungsten price at that time, they calculated the gross in-situ value (raw metal value in the ground) at about $4.6 billion

This is an Inferred resource — the lowest confidence category. It’s based on limited drilling and needs a lot more work to prove it’s actually economic. Still…..

The US has produced almost no tungsten domestically for over 10 years. According to the latest USGS data, there has been no commercial tungsten mining in the United States since 2015.

3. Investment/Ownership 10% stake in Larvotto Resources (an Australian antimony/gold company)

They bought the shares on the open market in October 2025 for $37.2 million in cash

He admitted strategic partnership idea is dead, and now he’s just waiting to exit at right price.

Adding it all up: $800M?

I estimate about $150M in tangibles between land, machines, smelters, roads, Govt contract for $240M, etc.

Another $100M in intangibles between Gary’s background, team of experts, Govt relationships, permits, etc..

So $250M in tangibles + intangibles.

And then we need to factor in two more expenses: TIME, and CASHFLOW.

Time

Starting with time, a new entrant would need to gather permitting (air, water, hazardous waste), construction of furnaces, scrubbers, refinery. Securing supply chain feedstock, they’ve had to get around the fact China controls most of Ore supply. So let’s say at least 2 years, likely more. Let’s say $50M worth of time.

Cashflow

Let’s anchor it around Gary’s $125M in 2026. And, the $245M DLA Contract.

DALLAS - United States Antimony Corporation (NYSE:UAMY) delivered its first shipments under a $245 million supply contract with the Defense Logistics Agency during the second quarter of 2026, according to a press release statement.
The company shipped approximately 82,000 pounds of antimony metal ingots in two initial deliveries, generating roughly $2.6 million in invoices issued to the DLA in June. Two additional shipments await government inspection and authorization. The company has received total orders of $57.3 million since the contract began.Investors have responded enthusiastically to the contract progress, with shares delivering a 269% return over the past year and trading at $7.26 with a market capitalization of $1.08 billion. The stock has gained 45% in the last six months alone. Analysts project the company’s price could reach between $11.75 and $14, according to InvestingPro data, which tracks over 1,400 US equities with comprehensive metrics. (https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/us-antimony-begins-deliveries-under-245m-defense-contract-93CH-4770359)

As they become more vertically integrated, they’ll cut into one of their largest cost, which is securing the Ore from all over the globe. Once they can mine it themselves, gross margin at scale (once in-house Montana ore + expanded smelter running) should be 25–35%.

This vastly improves the current Q1 2026 gross margin of only 16%. They’re still stuck on expensive purchased ore. The 23% gross margin level from late 2025 is a good benchmark for what “normal” looks like before the big government contract ramp and in-house production fully hit.

open-pit mining ore being loaded and hauled

So let’s say this year we do 19% (in the middle), on $125M that’s $23M in operating income. And they spend $25m/year on ops, so it should put the company near break even on Net Income.

Now looking at this from a Cashflow basis…

It’s tough to see it generating more Cash from Ops than CapEx.. so we’ll say FCF negative against next year. Which is yellow flag, but can be justified given they are small company in growth mode to satisfy clear demand.

And if we use Buffet’s Owners Earning logic.. they’re probably doing between +/- $10M away from breakeven.

Then we can back into thinking they have $25M of Net Income in 2027 based on scaling 100% Revenue again.

$525M of market cap. Plus the $300M we valued everything else at.

So maybe you can justify this by the numbers as a $800M company.

Price Action

You can see that in early June it broke below it’s 200 day moving average. That’s when I started acquiring it. I’ve been watching it for ~6 months now. It held strong on the 200 day up until this last month. Why did things change?

It’s also worth noting, the small cap mining ETF also broke it’s 200 day about the same date. So it’s likely an overall sector rotation as hard-assets decrease in demand as dollar strengthens?

UAMY Q1 2026, Missed Revenue, why?

Revenue for Q1 26’ was expected $12M.. yet revenue was reported as slightly down YoY ($6.8M vs $7.0M in Q1 2025), and 50% below expectations. On top of declined revenue, their gross margin collapsed from 34% → 16%.

So how does revenue stagnate, yet margins also get hit:

Buying inventory = Cash going out to purchase raw ore/feedstock.
Revenue = Only recorded when they process the ore into finished antimony products and ship/sell it to customers.

So the lag makes this slightly harder to underwrite.

From the official press release:

“Gross margin of approximately 16% ... primarily reflects higher antimony cost per pound sold ... as higher-cost ore moved through cost of sales. Q1 2026 gross margin did not benefit from any of the processing of the Company’s in-house antimony mined in Montana or from any antimony deliveries under the Company’s contract with the DLA. Both of these events are expected to begin contributing during the remaining quarters of 2026...”

Since then, they’ve delivered positive updates (first government shipments, furnace commissioning, etc.), and the stock has been choppy but trying to stabilize in the $7–8 range. Their in-house mining of Montana Ore at Stibnite Hill started April 2nd.. Q2.. and the New Thompson Falls furnaces should be up and running by end of June. So this next Q will see minimal benefit from these assets, though all very very promising.

Based on the work I just did, $800M feels like a fair entry price to me (including slightly recovered margins). It’s at $1.1B right now. So is it 27% above fair price? I mean… fair price is highly subjective.

The real value of this company is the rarity of their solution in 2026/2027.

What UAMY Does That Almost No One Else Can Right Now:

Full vertical integration: Mine antimony ore domestically → mill/concentrate → smelt/refine into finished products (antimony metal ingots, oxide, trisulfide) ready for ammunition, flame retardants, etc.
Operate the only significant permitted and operating antimony smelter in the United States (Thompson Falls, Montana).
Hold the sole-source $245M DLA government contract for defense stockpile ingots.